Will Alberta's State of Public Health Emergency Help Trudeau in Next Week's Election?

After loosening rules earlier in the summer, the province of Alberta has paid dearly with a surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths. Hospitals are full capacity with patients being moved out of province for care. This afternoon Alberta's United Conservative Party (UCP) Premier Jason Kenney announced a state of health emergency which will reintroduce many of the social distancing measures which had been previously been in place while implementing a proof of vaccination program. Some of the measures will go into effect at midnight while others will be implemented next week.

Kenney announced these measure five days prior to the federal election. Justin Trudeau's Liberals have been in a dogfight with Erin O'Toole's Conservatives and have been on the defensive for much of the campaign. But Kenney's announcement could give Trudeau a lifeline. You can bet that Trudeau will spend the rest of the campaign making O'Toole and Kenney one in the same. Indeed, O'Toole made a point of saying Trudeau could learn a lot from the Kenney government's handling of the pandemic. Trudeau could put O'Toole on the defensive especially if O'Toole says his remarks are taken out of context. Trudeau would smell blood in the water.

Of course, even if this development brings some voters back to the Liberal fold it doesn't necessarily mean Trudeau will get what he wants - a majority government. Trudeau might end up having to rely on the NDP for support which is exactly where he was before and will have ended up calling an election two years early for nothing.