(From left to right: OneBC Leader Dallas Brodie, CentreBC Leader Elenore Sturko, B.C. Premier and NDP leader David Eby, Interim Conservative Party Leader Lorne Doerkson & Green Party Leader Emily Lowan)
When it comes to politics in British Columbia, if you blink you might miss something.
Lo and behold, B.C.'s NDP Premier David Eby called a snap provincial election on Wednesday for October 17th - 2 days shy of the last election 2 years ago.
This election will be part of a busy month in Canadian politics with voters in Quebec going to the polls on October 5th. A fortnight later (and 2 days after the B.C. election) Albertans will vote on whether they want a referendum on separation.
Eby claims he is calling the election because President Trump presents "an existential threat" to B.C. and to Canada.
Oh, it's true that Trump is a threat to Canada and its provinces with his desires of annexation.
But this isn't the reason Eby called the election.
Eby called the election because of disarray in the opposition. Earlier this month, I wrote about the implosion in the B.C. Conservative Party after former federal Tory MP and cabinet minister Kerry-Lynne Findlay became party leader last May. At the time, 9 Conservative MLAs left caucus.
In the weeks that followed, several Tory MLAs were expelled from caucus including John Rustad who came within a heartbeat of unseating Eby's government in 2024. However, Rustad couldn't keep his caucus together leading to his ouster and Findlay succeeding him. Findlay would resign as party leader after only four months on the job last Sunday.
Most of the Tory MLAs who left caucus would join the CentreBC Party including Peter Milobar who would become the party leader. But once Findlay was of the picture, Milobar and most of the defectors rejoined the Tories when Lorne Doerkson was named interim leader. Elenore Sturko remained and, by default, became the new leader of CentreBC.
Got that?
Whatever disarray there was among the Conservatives might be over long enough to unseat the NDP which has been in power since 2017. While recent polls have had the NDP in the lead, a new poll conducted by Angus Reid now gives the Conservatives an 8-point lead.
Now this poll could be an aberration. But if it isn't then it would voters are angrier at Eby calling an early election under false pretenses than at the chaos with Conservative ranks.
In this day and age, debates don't have the same impact as they once did. But in this instance, the leadership debate could make a big difference. I am not sure if CentreBC's Sturko or OneBC's Dallas Brodie (another ex-Tory MLA) would make the debate stage.
If they do not make the stage, then the spotlight is on Doerkson. If Doerkson comes off as a reasonable alternative to Eby then the anti-NDP vote could coalesce around him B.C. would see its first Conservative government in nearly a century.
The wild card in all of this is Green Party leader Emily Lowan. Only 26, Lowan could help siphon off NDP votes to facilitate a Tory win or could win a sufficient number of seats for the NDP ask it once again to form a minority government as it did when the NDP returned to power in 2017 under the late John Horgan.
Actually, there is another wild card scenario should Doerkson and the Tories prevail. The B.C. Conservative Party Constitution does not allow interim leaders to serve as Premier. The Tories can try to change their constitution, but this might very well end up in court.
As with 2024, I would not want to be a B.C. voter. It would be a question of choosing between imbeciles and morons.
Whatever the quality of the people running, the election will take place three weeks from today. With everything which has already happened, who knows what could happen by then.