Saturday, December 9, 2023

Why I Think Juan Soto Will Do Better For The Yankees Than Shohei Ohtani Will For The Dodgers

Shohei Ohtani has signed the largest contract in the history of professional sports inking a 10-year, $700 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

There had been reports that Ohtani was planning to go north of the border to sign with the Toronto Blue Jays. Instead, he will go across town from the Angels to the Dodgers.

Ohtani's deal comes days after the New York Yankees acquired outfielder Juan Soto from the San Diego Padres in a seven-player deal

Although Soto does not pitch like Ohtani, the two have played in MLB since 2018 and have very comparable numbers where it concerns offense.

In six seasons with the Los Angeles Angels, Ohtani played 701 games collecting 681 hits for a batting average of .274 with 171 HR and 437 RBI. The Japanese born slugger has struck out more than twice as much than he has walked (755 to 351) although he did lead the AL in OBP with a .412 mark. The three-time AL All-Star also led the AL in HR (44) SLG (.654) and OPS (1.066) en route to earning his second AL MVP in the past three seasons. However, for all the comparisons to Babe Ruth, the Angels never had a winning season with Ohtani at bat or on the mound. Ruth, who spent his first six MLB seasons with the Boston Red Sox from 1914 to 1919 earned three World Series rings in 1915, 1916 and 1918 before earning four more with the New York Yankees in 1923, 1927, 1928 and 1932

In six seasons with the Washington Nationals and the San Diego Padres, Soto played 779 games collecting 768 hits for a batting average of .284 with 160 HR and 483 RBI. The Dominican born slugger has walked 640 times while striking out only 577 times. The three-time NL All-Star has led the Senior Circuit in walks for the past three seasons and has a lifetime OBP of .421. Although Soto has yet to win MVP honors, he did finish runner up in NL MVP balloting in 2021 to Bryce Harper of the Philadelphia Phillies. Unlike Ohtani, Soto wears a World Series ring earning one with the Washington Nationals in 2019. 

One other thing worth mentioning. Soto turned 25 in October while Ohtani will turn 30 next July. 

It is worth noting that Ohtani is deferring his money to give the Dodgers some financial flexibility. On the other hand, the Dodgers could end up in a Bobby Bonilla situation and continue to pay Ohtani until a few days before he turns 70 in 2064. 

As for 2024, Ohtani will not pitch due to his second Tommy John surgery. However, methinks the Dodgers wouldn't be paying him so much unless they expect him to pitch come 2025. Given his history of arm troubles, I don't believe he should ever throw a pitch off a mound unless it's a ceremonial first pitch. In the long run, the Blue Jays might breathe a sigh of relief in not being able to sign him.

The Dodgers have very good team for a long time. Since 2013, the Dodgers have won 10 out of the last 11 NL West division titles and three NL pennants. However, their only World Series came during the COVID shortened 2020 season. 

Will Ohtani be the difference maker? The Dodgers already have a stacked lineup with Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, J.D. Martinez and James Outman coming off his rookie season. Or will they still be perpetual bridesmaids? If anything, there is a chance the Angels could be better off without Ohtani and the fact that he is now a cross town rival could serve as a source of motivation.

Across the country, Soto will also be joining a stacked lineup featuring Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton both of whom had injury plagued seasons in 2023 but still managed to produce. Throw in Gleyber Torres and Anthony Volpe coming off his rookie campaign and there will be a lot of home runs hit. The only question will be the Yankees pitching and what they can offer following AL Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole. The Yankees finished at 82-80 as did the Padres despite having a lineup of Soto, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis, Jr.

I have no doubt that Solo will have a big year in 2024. He is due to be a free agent at the end of next season. Given the amount of money the Dodgers have shoveled to Ohtani, I'm inclined to think Soto will want a similar deal or at the very least one which exceeds that of Judge. Of course, if this is the case then there are only so many teams which could fulfill that wish and the Yankees would be at the top of the list followed by the Dodgers. Concerning questions about a contract extension, longtime Yankees GM Brian Cashman says he wants the Bronx Bombers to be "the Mecca of baseball".

With this in mind, it would be very interesting to see a Yankees vs. Dodgers World Series in 2024. Aside from the fact, the two teams haven't faced off in a World Series in 1981 it would put the Soto vs. Ohtani comparisons on an international stage.

In the final analysis, I think Soto will bring more to the table with the Yankees than Ohtani will with the Dodgers. Soto is nearly five years younger and has a World Series ring on his finger. While Soto won't be able to join Gerrit Cole in the Yankees starting rotation, I very much doubt Ohtani will be taking the mound a great deal for the Dodgers. While Soto is bound to eventually cost the Yankees a great deal of money, I do think he will be a better investment in the long run. 

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