One month from today, Republicans in New Hampshire go to the polls.
Much is being made of a poll from the American Research Group released on December 21st which shows former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley within 4 points of defeated, former President Trump (33% to 29%).
However, a poll released by UMass Lowell and in conjunction with YouGov that same day paints a very different picture. The UMass Lowell poll has Trump ahead of Haley by 30 points (52% to 22%).
Not surprisingly Trump doesn't think much of the former poll calling it a scam. Of course, Trump calling something a scam is a classic case of the pot calling the kettle black.
Nevertheless, there is a significant difference between a gap of 30 points and a gap of 4 points. I don't think the American Research Group poll is so much a scam as it is an outlier.
While Trump might not beat Haley by 30 points on primary night, unless other polling suggests a closer race, I think Trump will beat Haley by double digits in New Hampshire in a month from now.
However, if a week in politics is a lifetime, a month is an eternity.
With that said, I think it would take an eternity for Haley to overcome Trump among Republican voters.
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