I'm not sure why the media wants to make the GOP race a horse race despite all evidence to the contrary. But there's always a story to tell whether or not it's true.
In this particular case, it the so-called "surge" of Nikki Haley against Donald Trump in New Hampshire in a new CBS/YouGov poll. In the poll, Haley is at 29% of likely Republican voters. Not bad, but Trump is at 44%.
Haley did better in this poll than in a Trafalgar Group poll which had Trump leading Haley by 27 points (45.1% to 18.1%). I'm sure NH GOP Governor Chris Sununu's endorsement doesn't hurt her. Nevertheless, Trump is still leading Haley by double digits in the Granite State. Come talk to me should Haley come within 4 points of Trump within the next 30 days.
Even then, in order for that to matter Haley has to beat Trump in New Hampshire which would give her some genuine momentum in her home state of South Carolina. But MAGA Republicans are still going to run through a wall for Trump and rebuild it for him. They will do no such thing for Haley.
Unless Haley somehow knocks off Trump, I am operating on the assumption that Trump is going to be GOP nominee.
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