Election Day is in exactly 100 days from now.
If the 2020 presidential election is a free and fair one then Joe Biden will be elected the 46th President of the United States.
The presidency of Donald Trump has resulted in nearly 150,000 deaths from COVID-19 - most of which could have been prevented had he seen fit to lock down earlier and stayed locked down longer as was the case in most of Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused mass unemployment with many people only surviving on enhanced unemployment benefits which are to end this week and Mitch McConnell isn't in any hurry to extend a lifeline. If people don't have money to extend it will force more businesses to close unless you're well connected enough to get a PPP loan.
On top of that there is the social unrest that has arisen since the murder of George Floyd two months ago and instead of restoring the calm, President Trump seeks chaos as he turns DHS into his own personal police force as we are seeing in Portland and likely to see in other cities.
None of has inspired confidence in President Trump including among people over 65 in Florida. Yes, it's always possible the polls could be wrong. But Trump wasn't an incumbent President in 2016. The previous paragraphs do not make for something voters want for another four years much less another four months lest I forget the fact Trump has no response to Vladimir Putin putting a bounty on the heads of U.S. soldiers.
Yes, it is true there will be voters who will stick with Trump through a plague of locusts. But for Trump to get another legitimate victory in the electoral college would be as if nothing had happened in 2020. I cannot see most voters ignoring seeing what is right in front of them.
Yes, a week in politics is a lifetime. And Joe Biden will probably have some not so great days over the next hundred. But those will pale in comparison to continued suffering and death that is to follow all under Trump's watch.
It took 15 days to go from 3 million to 4 million COVID-19 cases in this country. If we continue at this pace we will have exceeded 10 million COVID-19 cases by Election Day. And the deaths will climb. If we average a 1,000 deaths a day between now and November 3rd we will be at or near 250,000 deaths. These numbers are bound to get worse if the Trump Administration insists that schools open for business in the fall while their parents struggle to make ends meet. Will the unemployment rate climb to 15%? 20%? Or worse? Then there's the worry about being picked up off the street by paramilitary thugs in unmarked vans.
Given our current conditions and the likelihood these conditions are going to get worse, the only conceivable way Trump can survive is by chicanery be it by undermining the USPS' ability to process mail in ballots, limiting the number of polling stations in major cities, voter intimidation and other police state measures.
Of course should Biden prevail notwithstanding Trump's clumsy chicanery there's a good chance that Trump would not accept those results making baseless claims of voter fraud and a rigged election. In which case, one can only hope that Biden wins by a landslide on the scale of winning, say, 46 out of 50 states. It would make it harder for Trump to make those claims without being widely ridiculed, but when someone plays for keeps it cannot be ruled out of order. If the Bolsheviks could lose by a landslide and gain power by way of force then what would stop Trump from doing the same?
Based on the above, the only conceivable way that Donald Trump wins in 100 days from now is by hook or by crook.
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