Thursday, April 18, 2019

The Mueller Report Won't Result in Trump's Impeachment or Resignation

As written previously, I haven't dealt much with Robert Mueller's investigation into the 2016 election. In the wake of the long awaited release of the Mueller Report today (albeit in heavily redacted form) has seen calls for the impeachment of President Trump. Indeed, two of the top trends on Twitter are #ImpeachTrump and #TimetoImpeach.

I doubt this is going to happen. This isn't to say that Congress shouldn't summon Mueller to testify and conduct its own hearings on the matter and bring it all out in the open and, if possible, hold Trump and his minions to account. No doubt the Democratic dominated House of Representatives will vote to impeach Trump just as the GOP dominated House voted to impeach President Clinton 20 years ago. But as with Clinton, the Senate will acquit Trump as long as Mitch McConnell is running the show. Even if Democrats controlled the Senate they would never get the two thirds necessary for impeachment.

Perhaps most importantly, there are no Republicans with the stature of Barry Goldwater who can tell Trump that he must leave office. John McCain is dead and Mitt Romney is like the rest of the GOP which is afraid of crossing Trump. It also must be remembered that Trump isn't of the GOP. He is his own brand who co-opted Republicans into worshipping the ground on which he walks. So not only won't Trump be impeached, he isn't going to resign either.

The only way to end Trump's presidency is to defeat him at the polls in November 2020. Aside from all the inherent advantages that come with incumbency, if this country still has a 3.8% unemployment rate in 18 months time it will be nearly impossible to oust him even if the Democrats nominate the best possible candidate. Like it or not, people vote with their pocketbooks and what's going on in their lives. If voters conclude that life is all right then they will stick with Trump.

I realize the above paragraph will make anti-Trump adherents pursue impeachment all the more, but there is a key difference between impeachment, resignation and Trump losing the election. There is absolutely no chance Trump will be impeached. There is absolutely no chance Trump will resign. There is a slim chance he will lose in 2020. That might be an inch of difference, but it is an inch that is well worth living.

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