Alberta Ousts NDP After One Term In Favor of UCP

On July 7, 2016, I wrote the following in a blog post in The American Spectator titled, "Can Jason Kenney Revive Conservatism in Alberta?":

If Kenney can unite the Tories and Wildrose just as Stephen Harper united the Progressive Conservatives and the Reform Party then Notley’s NDP would very likely be a one term wonder. 

Less than three years later, this scenario has come to pass tonight with Kenney's United Conservative Party (UCP) ousting Rachel Notley's NDP government out of power after only one term in office. The UCP won 62 out of 87 seats in the Alberta legislature with the NDP losing 32 seats although Notley retained her Edmonton area constituency. That is small consolation as the UCP also won 53.7% of the  popular vote. Make no mistake, Alberta expressed buyer's remorse and has rebuked the NDP. 

Of course, no one is surprised by this result. After all, as at least one commentator in this country observed, the election of the NDP in Alberta in 2015 was akin to Bernie Sanders being elected Governor of Texas. It was one thing for Albertans to be fed up with 44 years of Tory rule and making a radical change, but it was always going to be a challenge for the NDP to do it a second time. When you combine falling oil prices, Notley's ill-fated alliance with Justin Trudeau and just plain old inexperience, it is a recipe for a one term government. It was not unlike what the NDP experienced when it governed Ontario between 1990 and 1995 despite Notley's assurances to the contrary.

With Notley's defeat, it leaves only NDP government in the country in neighboring British Columbia where John Horgan holds a minority government with support from the Green Party. However, there was little love lost between Notley and Horgan over their disagreement on the expansion of the TransMountain Pipeline. I don't think Horgan is any sorrier to see her go than most of Alberta. 

As for Kenney, given his vast experience as a federal cabinet minister when the Tories were in power under Harper, I have every reason to believe he will govern Alberta with competence. Kenney did hold views less than sympathetic to the LGBT community, but he isn't about to overturn same sex marriage. While NDP circles view Kenney as another Donald Trump, Kenney has never been a fan of Trump and is particularly critical of Trump where it concerns trade. Had I lived in Alberta, I probably would have voted for UCP. Now let's see what they do in office.