Shinzo Abe's Assassination & Why The U.S. Won't Adopt Japan's Gun Control Measures

Aside from the brutal and shocking nature of the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, much of the focus in the aftermath of his murder is just how rare gun homicides are in Japan.

There is simply no concept of a mass shooting in Japan as homicides rarely reach double digits in any given year. The same cannot be said for this country as recently demonstrated in Buffalo and Uvalde, Texas. In 2021, Japan had a single gun homicide and as far as I can see Abe is the only gun homicide in Japan this year. Japan has a gun homicide rate of 0.03 per 100,000 people while in the United States it is 7 per 100,000 people.

The United States, of course, will never implement Japan's gun control measures. This is the case for several reasons.

First, I doubt most of Japan's gun measures would stand up to constitutional scrutiny. For instance, to obtain a firearm one must demonstrate to authorities why one needs a firearm which involves a background check consisting of interviews of family, neighbors, employment history and financial status. Last month, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down New York's conceal carry permit law because it deemed demonstrating a need for self-defense to be unconstitutional.

Second, Japan has a culture which is deferential to authority. Life, liberty and pursuit of happiness does not lend itself to such deference. I doubt most Americans even in very liberal states like Massachusetts, New York, Vermont and California would put up with the rigorous steps and level of state intrusion required to obtain firearms. 

Third, Japan's judicial system is very different from our own. For starters, there is a 99% conviction rate in Japanese criminal courts. Most authoritarian states do not have such a high conviction rate. Japan has long been criticized for utilizing coercive methods to obtain confessions and for punishing judges who acquit criminal defendants. 

Needless to say the United States cannot and will not emulate Japan on gun control measures or much of anything else. The problem as I see it is a combination of Second Amendment absolutism and a gradual societal breakdown. The Supreme Court used to tolerate states which administered more stringent restrictions but now it's any American who wants a gun can have one on demand. While America experienced higher rates of gun homicides 1970s (i.e. 16.3 per 100,000 in 1974), mass shootings have accelerated over the past five years with the exception of 2020 at the height of the COVID lockdowns. 

The best America can do is find a way to live with the Second Amendment while implementing measures that will meaningfully reduce mass shootings. Unfortunately, this means an awful lot of people are going to be killed in the process.