Thursday, July 28, 2022

How Can We Be in a Recession With a 3.6% Unemployment Rate?

While it is true the GDP has shrunk for two consecutive quarters (1.6% and 0.9%, respectively), I am not ready to agree that the U.S. is in a recession.

How can the U.S. economy be in a recession with an unemployment rate of 3.6%?

Now if the unemployment rate doubles in three months then we can talk. 

The National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months." The NBER further states, "In recent decades, the two measures we have put the most weight on are real personal income less transfers and nonfarm payroll employment."

The former is certainly significant as it ties in with inflation which certainly reduces purchasing power. Inflation is currently at 9.1% and no doubt many Americans are feeling the pinch and squeeze. But for much of the 1970's and early 1980's, inflation was in double digits peaking at 14.6% in 1980. Now combine double digit inflation with double digit unemployment and double digit interest rates. Life wasn't so simple as you thought it was back in the 1970's and early 1980's.

Then again if Americans can be convinced Donald Trump ought to be elected President and possibly for a second time then Americans can be convinced we're in a recession

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