As July draws to a close, the tightest divisional race in MLB is in the AL Central where the Minnesota Twins currently lead the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox by 1 and 2 games, respectively. The Guardians and Chisox also find themselves 1.5 and 2 games back of the Tampa Bay Rays for the third AL Wild Card berth.
The Twins have led the AL Central for a majority of the season. Should they hold on then they will have gone from first to worst back to first. But they will have their work cut out for them. The winner of the division will most likely be the team which can beat up on the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals. The Twins begin August hosting a series against the Tigers while the White Sox will host the Royals. Meanwhile, the Guardians host the Arizona Diamondbacks who are in a virtual tie for last place in the NL West with the Colorado Rockies. It will be interesting to see if the Tigers and Royals will sell off any parts before the August 2nd trade deadline. Last week, the Royals dealt outfielder Andrew Benintendi to the New York Yankees.
Speaking of the Yankees, both they and the Houston Astros continue to hold double digit leads in their respective divisions. The Yankees have an 11.5 game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays. If you see the Jays these days you wouldn't know there were 11.5 games out as they have won 8 of their last 10 games and are 11-3 under interim manager John Schneider. Toronto has the top AL Wild Card berth followed by the Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays despite the fact they have dropped 7 of their last 10 games. The Baltimore Orioles finish July at .500 and are 3 games back of the Rays for the third AL Wild Card berth with the last place Boston Red Sox 3.5 games back though they now have a losing record. Which makes one wonder if the Red Sox will be buyers or sellers during the trade deadline? Could they move both Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers rather than lose them to free agency?
The Astros lead the Mariners in the AL West by 12 games. The Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Angels and Oakland A's are all 20 games plus back of the Astros and are likely to trade for prospects in the next couple of days. The Angels could move last year's AL MVP Shohei Ohtani while the A's appear ready to move ace Frankie Montas. Although the A's have won 7 of their last 10 games they still own the worst record in the AL.
Over on the Senior Circuit, while the NL East and NL Central isn't nearly as tight as the AL Central it is plenty competitive. The New York Mets hold a three game lead over the Atlanta Braves in the NL East and finished July with six straight wins and wins in 7 of their last 10 games. To make matters better, Jacob deGrom makes his 2022 debut next week. Still, the Atlanta Braves have the top berth in the NL Wild Card race while the Philadelphia Phillies have the third berth with a one game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals. As for the Miami Marlins, GM Kim Ng is likely planning some trades while the big question is where will the Washington Nationals send Juan Soto. The Nats, less than three years removed from a World Series title, are 30 games back of the Mets and have the worst record in MLB.
The Milwaukee Brewers also hold a three game lead in the NL Central with the Cardinals on the outside looking in on the post-season. The Chicago Cubs have won 7 of their last 10 games but are not ready to be a contender. Although the Cincinnati Reds have parted ways with both Tyler Naquin and Luis Castillo in recent days for the first time this season they are not in last place in the NL Central. The Pittsburgh Pirates finish July with seven straight losses and are 1-8 since the All-Star Break.
In the NL West, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a 12 game lead over the San Diego Padres who have the second NL Wild Card berth. The Padres could land Soto but the Dodgers might beat them to it. The San Francisco Giants are at .500 but on fumes having lost 7 of their last 10 games and are four games back of the Phillies for the third NL Wild Card berth. The Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks are in a virtual tie for the cellar and are likely to bare their cupboards with the D'Backs having just sent veteran outfielder David Peralta to the Rays.
It is very difficult to predict where MLB will be at the end of August as there will be a proliferation of trades over the next 48 hours. But we can ask questions? Can either the Guardians or Chisox topple the Twins? Will the Red Sox be buyers or sellers? Will the Angels unload Ohtani? Where will Juan Soto go? Can the Cardinals catch the Phillies for the third NL Wild Card berth? Or will the Giants grow tall? See you in a month.
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