Two Years After COVID Have We Reached a Calm or is Another Storm Brewing?

It was during the week of March 11-18, 2020 when life as we understood it in America (and in much of the world) changed. 

In the space of a week, my work and what little social life I had came to an abrupt end. I was bowling in Queens on the evening of March 11th when I learned the NBA was shutting down and that Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson had been diagnosed with COVID. Five days later, I swum my last lap and haven't been inside a pool since. Exactly one week later, I was sent home from work at the Chrysler Building. I would never return. 

In the weeks that followed, I would officially be laid off and then subsequently moved upstairs to social distance from my Dad. Seven months later I would find myself in Atlanta. Seven months after that I made my way back to Boston. Although my life has been chaotic, at least I still have one. The same cannot said for 970,000 plus Americans and counting. 

Yet COVID cases have come down in this country significantly with masking measures significantly relaxed although still required on public transportation, but the T is crowded again. I haven't been required to wear a mask at work for several weeks now. In this part of the country, some people still wear masks out of habit. I do tend to wear a mask when I'm inside a grocery store. Again, force of habit. Perhaps it will wane in time, but I'll be keeping a mask at hand for the foreseeable future. 

When I left the Chrysler Building for the last time two years ago today, the streets of New York were deserted. Today, was an unseasonably warm 70 degrees in Boston. People were out and about and outdoor dining was the norm at lunch in Boston's Seaport District and during dinner when I walked on Mass Ave in Cambridge. While some people wore masks even those who did appeared not to have a care in the world. My landlady told me that people want to take advantage of the moment and this was exactly what I was thinking when I walked up Mass Ave.

Yet is there another storm brewing? After all, we had a period of calm in community spread between May and July before Delta hit. Soon we were back to 100,000 plus cases a day. When Omicron hit it would be 1 million plus cases a day. Now another COVID variant, Omicron BA.2 is surging in Asia and Europe. It is more communicable than Omicron and will invariably surge here. The question might not be so much the number of cases but how many hospitalizations will result. My guess is that if restrictions are reintroduced they will be done at the local level albeit in jurisdictions where this is allowed (i.e. Massachusetts not Florida). But then again if people start getting sick at work in large numbers, companies will invariably go back to remote work. 

This is more familiar terrain than it was two years ago. Still, I understand that people don't want to cover this ground again. Then again there are still among us who refuse to take even the first step forward. Which is why I won't be surprised if we go two steps back yet again.