Most Americans Probably Wouldn't Accept a Russian Oil Embargo

A bipartisan group of Senators wants the Biden Administration to impose an oil embargo on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Voldymyr Zelenskyy demanded the same today in a conference call with U.S. Senators.

But absent overwhelming public pressure I cannot see the Biden Administration taking such an action even if it is the right thing to do. The main argument imposing an embargo is because it would send already high gas prices soaring while exacerbating inflation. Of course, there is a political argument. Democrats appear headed for a shellacking in the November mid-terms. The prospect of double digit inflation could lead to the decimation of Democrats in Congress.

This could be a failure of imagination. Is there a way to offset the loss of Russian oil by ramping up domestic oil production, increasing imports from friendlier nations and increasing reliance on other sources of energy? Perhaps, but maybe not in the short term.

With this in mind, I think that even Americans who are appalled by Russia's actions in Ukraine would be disinclined to pay higher prices for food and fuel for any extended period of time. After all, we appear to be coming to the end of the pandemic phase of COVID and I suspect that most Americans who are done with COVID are uninterested in making a sacrifice for the people of Ukraine. I mean if a critical mass of Americans were unwilling to wear a mask to protect their fellow Americans from a deadly disease then how can we expect Americans to sacrifice for a country they cannot be bothered to find on a map. After all, consider the response to actor George Takei when he suggested on Twitter:

Americans: We can endure higher prices for food and gas if it means putting the screws to Putin. Consider it a patriotic donation in the fight for freedom over tyranny.

Much of the backlash against Takei is that he is a millionaire who can withstand increased food and fuel costs while most Americans cannot. Now much of this criticism is coming from right-wing yahoos who couldn't give a flying fuck about the poor. While Twitter commentary isn't necessarily representative of America at large, I do think there would be considerable resistance to an oil embargo on Russia if it hits Americans in their wallets.

Personally, I would favor a Russian oil embargo. The words of President Zelenskyy carry a lot of weight. The question is how long would it be kept in place. A week? A month? A year? Two? Ten? A lot of that depends on Russia itself. Is Putin prepared to play a waiting game? Or will the oligarchs decide they have waited long enough & oust him from power after a couple of months? Of course, the removal of Putin doesn't necessarily mean his successor or successors wouldn't have designs on Ukraine. Perhaps the best we could hope for is a ceasefire that would result in peace talks. But would the embargo remain until the conclusion of peace talks or would it be lifted immediately as a gesture of goodwill?

The long and the short of it is that even the right answer is seldom an easy answer.