Three Possible Outcomes of Canada's Liberal-NDP Agreement in 2025

Yesterday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh announced the two parties had reached a "supply and confidence" agreement which would last until the next federal election which is scheduled to take place no later than October 2025. 

This essentially means the NDP will back Trudeau's Liberal minority government in the event of a vote of confidence in the House of Commons in exchange for the Liberals backing a number of NDP initiatives most notably the implementation of both a national dental care program and a national pharmacare program. 

In some ways, not much has changed. The NDP backed the Liberals after the 2019 election after Trudeau lost his majority and again last year when Canadian voters decided they wanted more of the same. But the arrangement was informal. In the past, Singh has resisted a formal agreement as was the case after last fall's election. In particular, he opposed forming a coalition government with Trudeau.

This agreement will not be a coalition as Singh nor any other NDP MPs will be joining Trudeau's cabinet. The NDP is also free to walk away from the deal at anytime. It is more along the lines of the accords which occurred between the Liberals and NDP in Ontario between 1985 and 1987 which ended 42 years of Tory governments and more recently in British Columbia between the NDP and the Greens from 2017 to 2020. 

If the COVIDIOT Convoy hadn't shut down Ottawa and blockaded the Ambassador Bridge with the Tories embracing the COVIDIOCY, I suspect Trudeau and Singh might not have come to this agreement as it also covers democratic reforms such as spreading voting over 72 hours. Naturally, the Tories detest this new arrangement with interim Tory leader Candice Bergen calling it "a power grab" and "back door socialism". But if Bergen's idea of "back door socialism" is a national pharmacare program she will have a hard time convincing the 90% plus Canadians who support it. 

Assuming the Liberal-NDP Coalition lasts until the next election, I see three possible outcomes:

1. Trudeau earns back a Liberal majority government. Of course, this was his objective in calling an early election last year and things didn't go according to plan. But the Ontario Liberals and B.C. NDP both earned majority governments after their minority accords with the Ontario NDP and B.C. Greens elapsed although much of the policy agenda was initiated by the smaller party. 

2. Should a national dental care program and a national pharmacare program be established, Canadians could also come to the conclusion that they want more of the same just as they did last September and elect their third consecutive Liberal minority government. Minority governments tend to be more responsive to satiating the public appetite.

3. There is, of course, the possibility that all of this blows up in their face should Canada end up with double digit unemployment and/or inflation. In which case both the Liberals and NDP would share the blame with Canadians turning to the Tories like they did when Brian Mulroney became Prime Minister in 1984. Should this come to pass, Trudeau might not seek a fourth term which would leave the Liberals in even more peril. 

But given just how Trumpy the Tories have become this year, I believe the first two scenarios are far more likely.