Biden's Path to the White House is Narrowing

As we pass 11:20 p.m. on Election Night, there appears to be at a stalemate which benefits President Trump.

Despite the deaths of more than 230,000 Americans due to COVID-19, at this hour, Joe Biden has thus far failed to break through any of the states Trump won in 2016. It appears that Trump will hold onto Florida owing to a soft Hispanic vote for Biden. It also appears that Trump will hold onto North Carolina and Ohio and dreams of breaking through in Texas and Georgia are just that.

If Joe Biden is going to prevail he will have to regain a combination of the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin plus Arizona, Iowa and very possibly Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. Should that come to pass you can bet Trump is going scream fraud and we shall be in the courts for weeks. At the very minimum, Trump will scream about Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin not releasing the results until Wednesday, possibly Thursday or Friday.

Making matters worse is that Republicans might retain control of the Senate. While John Hickenlooper has picked up Colorado for the Democrats, Alabama has gone back to the GOP column picking Tommy Tuberville over Doug Jones. Especially worrying is the possibility of a GOP pickup in Michigan. If John James bests Gary Peters this might also help Trump retain the Wolverine State.

Lindsey Graham has retained his seat in South Carolina. No doubt his role in confirming Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court helped him prevail. But there are still results pending in places like Arizona, Iowa and Maine. It also appears there will be a Senate runoff here in Georgia in January between Raphael Warnock and Kelly Loeffler. That runoff could loom very large. So even if Trump is re-elected, a Warnock win could potentially give Democrats control of the Senate and the ability to rein in Trump.

So it is still possible for Democrats to win the White House and the Senate. But even if Democrats triumph in this election it will not be a rebuke of Donald Trump, let alone Trumpism.