Will Macron Be Harmed By Fillon's Endorsement?

No sooner that it became clear Emmanuel Macron would face Marine Le Pen in next month's French presidential runoff, Republican candidate François Fillon promptly endorsed Macron.


Of course, Fillon was the odds on favorite to succeed the deeply unpopular François Hollande after he ousted former President Nicolas Sarkozy as well as former Prime Minister Alain Juppe in the Republican primary last year. But Fillon's support collapsed in January following a nepotism scandal. This resulted in Macron's surge. While Fillon finished third in yesterday's vote, he finished only 0.3% ahead of the far left Jean-Luc Mélenchon.


While I suspect most Republicans will follow Fillon's lead and support Macron, I cannot help but wonder if his endorsement could hurt Macron. After all, the investigation into Fillon is still ongoing. What happens if charges are pressed against Fillon between now and May 7th? Perhaps this is a remote possibility, but you can be sure that Le Pen will tie Macron to Fillon's corruption and argue they are both part of the same corrupt system and try to put Macron in the awkward position of distancing himself from the man who just endorsed him.


With that being said, there is no accusation of corruption on Macron's part. The only real complaint against him is that his wife is old enough to be his mother. But let's remember that when François Mitterrand died, both his wife and mistress were in attendance at his funeral. So the best Le Pen can do is guilt by association. But it could be good enough. While there is a 99 out of 100 chance that Macron will prevail in 13 days one cannot estimate the level of anger towards globalization, elitism and the EU. Who can say Melenchon's supporters won't turn out for Le Pen? The point is that Macron should take nothing for granted.


Keep this in mind. If Macron does defeat Le Pen it probably won't be by the 82-17 margin, Jacques Chirac had over her father 15 years ago. In which case, if Macron messes up then come 2022 Madame Le Pen might be residing in Elysée Palace. But that it is a bridge to be crossed later. Right now it is more important to make sure she doesn't move into Elysée Palace in 2017.