The Iran Nuclear Deal Isn't Going Anywhere

I never believed for a moment that Donald Trump was going to scrap the Iran nuclear deal. Instead the Trump Administration is going to "review" the deal. Here's Michael Warren from The Weekly Standard:


On the campaign trail, Donald Trump blasted the deal and promised he would renegotiate it when elected. But multiple figures within the Trump administration, from Tillerson to United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley have said since the transition that the deal deserves a review before the United States takes any action. There are some working in the administration who view the deal itself as fundamentally flawed and who prefer pulling out as soon as possible. Other say the problem could be solved by enforcing the deal more rigorously than the Obama administration had so that the Iranian are the first to break away from the agreement. Still others—chiefly career officials at the State Department—are mostly uninterested in pushing for any significant changes to the deal.


Bottom line? There's currently no plan from the Trump administration about how to proceed. Without a deputy secretary of state and under secretary of state for international security (both politically appointed positions) to shape and enforce the administration's viewpoint within a hostile State Department, the Iran deal is one area where the permanent administrative state is likely to win out.


When governments say they are going to "review" something it means that something isn't going anywhere. While it's true the apparatchiks at the State Department want the deal to remain, I don't think Trump ever had any intention of doing away with the Iran nuclear deal. Whalid Phares, who advised Trump during the 2016 campaign, stated in July 2016 and again days after the election that Trump would not scrap the Iran nuclear deal and would instead, you guessed it, review the deal. Phares said, "He will take the agreement, review it, send it to Congress, demand from the Iranians to restore a few issues or change a few issues, and there will be a discussion.”


In other words, Trump wants to make a deal. But how does one deal with a regime whose mantra is "Death to America!" & "Death to Israel!"? Naturally one wonders what Israel thinks about all this state of affairs. No doubt they were aware of Phares' comments. Given Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a far more cordial relationship with President Trump than he did with President Obama perhaps they have concluded they can live with an Iran nuclear deal during a Trump Administration. But what happens when a future Democratic administration comes in? What if Keith Ellison becomes Secretary of State? Iran can simply wait out any pressure brought to bear by the Trump Administration knowing that a Democratic administration will put its thumb in Israel's eye.


Frankly, the Trump Administration's review of the Iran nuclear deal merely forestalls the inevitable. Iran will develop a nuclear weapon. Even if they never use it against Israel, Iran becomes the North Korea of the Middle East. So long as Iran's regime remains in place it will seek to destroy both the United States and Israel. There will be no Persian Gorbachev. President Trump might seek to deal with the devil, but there is no reasoning with evil.