Thursday, April 27, 2017

Trump's NAFTA Saber Rattling is Good Politics, But Bad Economics

President Trump does resemble cat during an impending thunderstorm when he hints towards abrogation of NAFTA before saying, "Oh! Never mind I'll renegotiate."




Trump's manic behavior makes markets nervous.




The upside for Trump is that this is good politics. It's a rare opportunity for Democrats to be on board with Trump (i.e. Ron Wyden) and Republicans normally critical of him (i.e. Lindsey Graham). It's also an opportunity for Trump to shore up support in states which flipped from blue to red. In the case of objecting to Canada's supply management system for dairy producers, it is Wisconsin as attested by the support of Democrat Senator Tammy Baldwin. Even if Trump is unsuccessful, if voters believe Trump is fighting for them then this behavior will have been reinforced and it will continue.


But Trump eventually needs to get results. Canada and Mexico aren't about to roll over and play dead on NAFTA because Trump says so. Whether Trump likes it or not, we are in a global economy and if America wants to retreat for that global economy, China is more than happy to fill the void. A prolonged engagement in protectionism is bad economics which will result in less investment, fewer jobs and financial instability. These are not the kind of things which will make America great again.

No comments:

Post a Comment