Could The Champs-Élysées Attack Put Le Pen Over The Top on Sunday?

I realize that things are still being sorted out, but the Champs-Élysées in Paris is closed off as of this writing following the shooting death of a police officer. The assailant has evidently been shot dead although it is unclear if another assailant is at large. It is also unclear if this is another act of Islamic terrorism although it is unlikely a run of the mill thief would use a Kalashnikov. But given everything France has been through over the past two years plus - the Charlie Hebdo/Hyper Cacher attacks in January 2015, the November 2015 Paris bombings and the Bastille Day attack in Nice last year, this particular attack might be the final straw 72 hours before the polls open in France's presidential election. If this incident is the work of Islamic terrorists, ISIS or otherwise, it could be what puts the National Front's Marine Le Pen over the top - at least in the first round.


If Le Pen does finish at the top then she is unlikely to get 50% of the vote. In which case, there will be a runoff vote on May 7th. In which case, it is likely French voters would coalesce around her opponent who will probably be centrist Emmanuel Macron with the collapse of Socialist support due to the legacy of Francois Hollande and the corruption of Republican candidate Francois Fillon. But Communist Jean-Luc Melenchon's Unsubmissive France movement has been surging. If the runoff is between Le Pen and Melenchon then France is truly doomed. But assuming it's Le Pen vs. Macron, look for Le Pen to paint Macron as soft on terrorism. If another attack should take place between now and the runoff vote on May then all bets are off. France has a serious problem with Islamic terrorism, but Le Pen cannot discern between Islamic extremists and law abiding Jews. Nothing good can come from her election.


I know Le Pen has been supposedly modernizing the National Front, even expelling her own father National Front founder Jean-Marie Le Pen. But so long as Le Pen insists France was not responsible for deporting Jews during WWII then the stench of anti-Semitism remains. To suggest this is like suggesting Hitler didn't use chemical weapons.


I remember being in France on the eve of the 1995 presidential election. I was accompanying the late Scottish Labour MP Jimmy Wray to a Council of Europe meeting in Strasbourg. We spent the evening at a hotel in Reims with plans to take a train to Strasbourg the following morning. As I lay in bed, I heard a commotion outside. Peaking through the window I saw that National Front supporters had gathered outside. Soon they would chant, "La Mort Aux Juifs!!!" So far as I am concerned nothing has changed. Madame Le Pen is nothing more than lipstick on a pig.