Over at NRO, Jonathan S. Tobin cautions those in the mainstream media who are predicting President Trump's demise:
Trump has had no traditional post-election honeymoon. But he has done something remarkable. A stunning 96 percent of those who say they voted for him in 2016 would do so again. This stands in contrast to the buyer’s remorse of Hillary Clinton voters, with 15 percent saying they would not vote for Clinton again if given the chance. Together these numbers explain why the poll shows Trump winning the popular vote in a rematch with the Democratic nominee.
How is that possible with such low popularity ratings for Trump? It all comes down to the stark partisan divide in our current political culture. As was plainly illustrated in 2016, right- and left-leaning voters not only disagree; they also don’t listen to/watch/read the same media and thus draw vastly different conclusions from the same events.
Why are Republicans so pleased with Trump? Justice Neil Gorsuch and a kept promise about the Supreme Court is a big part of it. So, too, are his moves on regulatory reform and his nominating the most conservative cabinet in recent history. A more sensible foreign policy than was anticipated also helps. But the main thing is that whatever they may think of Trump’s character or shortcomings, almost everyone on the right thinks him superior to any possible Democratic president.
Tobin is correct to say that Republicans aren't experiencing buyer's remorse. Indeed, the Gorsuch appointment alone might be sufficient to mollify Republican voters for the next four years. If no Republican sees fit to challenge Trump in the 2020 primaries, his re-election is all but assured.
However, Tobin's analysis does not take into account the white working class voters in Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania (and for that matter in Maine and Minnesota) who voted for Barack Obama in 2012. As this recent New York Times article suggests while voters in Pennsylvania are willing to give Trump the benefit of the doubt they haven't seen any winning and their patience isn't endless.
If Democrats truly want to evict Trump from the White House then they ought to pay attention to the aspirations of these white working class voters. Trump promised "so much winning." Well, the first question the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee should be asking these voters is, "Have you been winning in the past four years?" If the answer is a resounding no then Democrats have a chance. If the answer is yes and people do feel like they are winning then Trump gets a four year lease extension at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Trump's chances improve if Democrats see fit to exclude pro-life voters which is what DNC Chair Tom Perez and Senator Dick Durbin are suggesting. Given that Democrats have lost nearly a 1,000 state legislature seats, 13 Senators, 12 Governors and now the White House since 2009 they don't exactly have the luxury to be picky about their voters. This doesn't mean Democrats should jettison their pro-choice views. They just shouldn't expunge pro-life voters and instead find common cause with them on economic issues and other domestic policies. It very much remains to be seen if Democrats will have the wisdom to do such a thing.
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