Russia is Invading Ukraine Because Putin Doesn't Think Anyone Will Stop Him

One of my colleagues at work is from Ukraine and for the past several weeks she has been distraught Russia's imminent invasion. She tells me that she is in touch with family and friends on a daily basis and all they can do is to wait and ask why.

It appears the waiting is over. As for the why, it is very simple. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is invading Ukraine because he doesn't think anyone will stop him. 

Oh, there will be sanctions. But that won't deter Russian aggression. Part of the reason for that is because Putin knows he won't face any meaningful military response from NATO especially the United States. We are a country weary of war and scarcely six months removed from our withdrawal from Afghanistan and a bloody, chaotic withdrawal at that.

Putin knows full well there is a critical mass of Americans who will not support a military conflict even if Russia were to kill American civilians on American soil. Worse still is that there is a fifth column especially in the Republican Party and the conservative mediasphere which is parroting Moscow's line.

In a war weary country approaching 1 million deaths from COVID and struggling with inflation, the odds are very much against President Biden in thwarting Putin’s ambitions. This, of course, didn’t start with Biden. Bush & Obama played nice while Trump just got played. 

The only way I see Russia’s ambitions held in check under current conditions is if the U.S. launches the kind of covert disinformation campaign in Russia which Russia has so successfully deployed in this country in the 2016 election and beyond. Of course, that won’t be easy to pull off in a country less free than our own. Even if such a campaign proves successful it would probably be too late for Ukraine.

The best we can hope in the short term is that Ukraine puts up far more resistance than Russia anticipates which would have the effect of slowing them down. But such hopes are faint.