I was walking in Somerville's Davis Square when a homeless man said to no one particular, "Biden's out!!!"
He said it with a hint of sadness.
A few minutes later, after walking along the Somerville Community Path his words turned out to be true. President Biden announced he would not be seeking a second term. The reality truly hit after I entered Mike's Foods and Spirits for a late lunch with many of the TVs tuned into the breaking news.
I shared the sadness of that homeless man. I also felt angered that this has come to pass. Here are seven reasons why.
1. Democrats Got What They Wanted - Now They Must Live with The Consequences
Since President Biden's disappointing performance in his debate with Donald Trump on June 27th, there has been a rising chorus among that he not elected officials and donors in the Democratic Party that he not run again.
Well, 25 days later, they got what they wanted. But if their gambit doesn't pay off and we end up with Trump again then they must live with the consequences of their actions. Because it will have been they who are responsible for hastening Trump's return to office. Although Trump has consistently led the polls since the debate, that lead has been within the margin of error.
Loathe as I am to agree with AOC, she is right to say this has not been well thought out:
It has been confirmed by the Republican Speaker of the House that Republicans are already preparing legal challenges to any change on ballot that may happen. The possibility of our elections being decided by the Supreme Court ruling skyrocket.
This is what happens when you press the panic button. It makes a far bigger mess of things than it ever actually was in the first place.
2. President Biden's Achievements Don't Matter
What this effort by Democrats and their allies in the mainstream media to toss President Biden from a cliff tells me is that his achievements don't matter.
Lower drug prices for seniors, expanded access to health care, the largest infrastructure bill in more than half a century and a booming economy - none of it counts. One bad debate negated three and a half years of good governance.
And if it doesn't count for President Biden, it sure isn't going to count for Vice-President Harris or any other Democrat.
As the old saying goes, "But fart just once...."
3. A Decline of Standards
As I have previously argued, Democrats have also succeeded in making a bad debate grounds to withdraw from a presidential race. But having 34 criminal convictions is just fine.
Yes, it says a lot about the Republican Party that not one Republican called upon Trump to withdraw from the race upon being found guilty in a New York courtroom. But it also says a lot about Democrats that they are so eager to give up on someone who has done so much. Indeed, most Democratic voters were more than happy to give Biden another term in office. But those votes (including my own) evidently don't count.
4. Democrats Played Right into Trump's Tiny Hands
A fortnight ago, I made the case that this effort by Democrats to oust President Biden played right into the hands of former President Trump. Because Democrats have done in 2024 what Donald Trump could not do in 2020 - defeat him.
This could not have turned out better for Trump if he had planned it himself. Notwithstanding Biden's bad debate, there is no guarantee Trump would have won. Whether Democrats choose Kamala Harris or somebody else, he will have the advantage going forward. He is virtually guaranteed to win. It will be his election to lose.
Everyday voters see Republicans standing firm with Trump while seeing Democrats waffle and wobble with Biden in favor of someone else are more apt to go with Trump. And what if the Democratic National Convention turns out to be a disaster? Voters will ask how they can run the country if they cannot run a convention.
5. What if Biden's Successor Has a Bad Debate Against Trump in September?
There is still the question of the second presidential debate on September 10th. What happens if Biden's successor (be it Vice-President Harris or anyone else) also has a bad debate against Trump? Will there be calls for that candidate to step aside after they have been nominated?
I could easily see Trump telling his debate opponent, "Uh oh! It looks like the Democrats are going to replace you too." And it would be all over.
6. The Democratic Party Never Entirely Accepted Joe Biden
The truth of the matter is that the Democratic Party never entirely accepted Joe Biden. His White House bids in 1988 and 2008 utterly floundered and it looked like the same would happen in 2020. Despite serving under Barack Obama for eight years, Democratic Party activists lustily booed Biden at Democratic Party debate watch parties I attended in NYC in 2019 and 2020. If not for COVID (and Jim Clyburn's critical endorsement of Biden in South Carolina), Democrats probably would have nominated Elizabeth Warren who would have been quashed by Trump.
Democrats support of President Biden turned out to be a mile wide, but an inch deep. Both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama enjoyed a deeper reservoir of support amongst Democrats than did Biden. Indeed, it was Obama and his minions who saw fit to undermine Biden. I cannot emphasize it enough. If Trump is returned to the White House, Obama will have more to answer for than most Democrats.
7. So, What the Hell Happens Now?
The Democratic National Convention commences four weeks from tomorrow on August 19th in Chicago. Will the Democratic Party coalesce around Kamala Harris? President Biden endorsed Harris as have the Clintons. So too has Senator Warren along with Senators Amy Klobuchar and Patty Murray along with Representative Clyburn. However, both Obama and Nancy Pelosi have not endorsed Harris. Ditto for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries.
Suppose Democrats don't choose Harris. This would be sure to alienate African-American women voters in particular which are a core Democratic constituency.
Then again, I hope Obama isn't withholding support from Harris because he wants the former First Lady to run in her place. If nothing else, I would hate to see Joe Rogan become an oracle.
But let's assume Harris does get the nomination. Who does she choose as her running mate? I'd like to see either Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg or Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. Either of them would tear J.D. Vance to pieces. Then again, I'm not sure if Democrats would accept a Jewish running mate or if the country at large would accept an openly gay man running with a biracial woman. Yet if that is the case then it says more about the country than it does about them. Nevertheless, it also illustrates the risks in ousting Biden from the ballot.
Conclusion
Joe Biden is the first Democrat for whom I cast a ballot as President. I think he has done a good job. I think he was a better President than Trump and he would have received my vote. Chances are his successor will also receive my vote because a second Trump term would mean the end of democracy in the United States. But I cannot say the same for millions of other voters.
The efforts of Democrats to change horses in midstream is a risky proposition that is more likely to fail than it is to succeed.
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