Why I Think Biden Chose to Withdraw From Afghanistan

Less than a month away from the 20th anniversary of the attacks of September 11, 2001, the Taliban is on the verge of retaking total control of Afghanistan. 

I honestly don't think this development comes as a surprise to President Biden. Oh, he might be surprised by how quickly the provinces have fallen. But I don't think he is surprised at the outcome despite whatever assurances he made to President Ghani and Chairman Abdullah. Consider what Biden said back in April when he made it clear that our time in Afghanistan would be ending soon:

I believed that our presence in Afghanistan should be focused on the reason we went in the first place: to ensure Afghanistan would not be used as a base from which to attack our homeland again.  We did that.  We accomplished that objective. 

Otherwise U.S. troops are in Afghanistan forever. To me, the key passage is "to ensure Afghanistan would not be used as a base from which to attack our homeland again." Biden then notes that objective was accomplished.

There is no question the Taliban will make life worse for the people of Afghanistan, especially its girls and women. But Biden has calculated that the legacy of U.S. troops in Afghanistan was sufficient that the Taliban won't harbor al Qaeda or any other terrorist group from launching terrorist attacks in the United States. 

If Biden is correct then most Americans won't care that we left Afghanistan however nasty, brutish and short life is there. For most Americans it will be, "Thank God it's them and not us." But if Biden is wrong and there is another large scale terrorist attack committed inside the United States with the help of the Taliban and it happens during Biden's tenure in office then it will mark not only the end of his Presidency but further the rise of authoritarian Trumpism in this country.

Of course, Trump is no position to criticize Biden's decision - right or wrong. He was prepared to meet with the Taliban at Camp David on the 18th anniversary of 9/11 and later cut a deal with the Taliban to cut U.S. troop presence in Afghanistan in exchange for assurances that it would not permit al Qaeda or any other terrorist group to use its soil to threaten America and its allies. In some aspects, Biden and Trump have a similar outlook on Afghanistan.

But if there were another 9/11 scale attack in the U.S. under Biden's watch with bloody Taliban hands then Trump and his supporters would use it as a pretext for taking drastic measures such up to and including ousting Biden from the White House by force and reinstating Trump. 

Then again if there were large scale casualties from Taliban aided terrorist attack then Trump and his supporters might not need to resort to such actions. American voters might be prepared to give him a second chance. If we do then we won't get a second chance at democracy. Should that come to pass then America will be no better under Trump than Afghanistan will be under the Taliban.