Yesterday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau asked Governor General Mary Simon to dissolve Parliament and call an election for September 20th - more than two years ahead of schedule of the next election.
Trudeau is seeking a third term in office and a second majority government after returning to power with a minority government in 2019. His Liberal Party has maintained a steady lead in the polls since the COVID-19 pandemic hit in March 2020. While the Liberals haven't been able to sustain their double digit lead since the WE Charity scandal last summer they still hold a steady 6-7 point lead over the Tories. COVID cases have been declining and most Canadians have been vaccinated. So Trudeau understandably feels fairly confident in calling an early election.
But I shall always remember the 1990 Ontario election which was called during the summer by Liberal Premier David Peterson. I remember it because I canvassed it for my local NDP candidate and there was a great deal of anger at Peterson for having called the election. With an unpopular Tory government in Ottawa led by Brian Mulroney, the NDP benefited from this anger and Bob Rae led the party to a shocking majority government.
A quarter century later, the NDP would again benefit from an early election call. This time from the late Alberta Tory Premier Jim Prentice. The NDP led by Rachel Notley would end the Alberta Tories' 44-year old dynasty.
Things do come in threes. That's at least what NDP leader Jagmeet Singh is counting on. On the other hand, new Tory leader Erin O'Toole is an unknown quantity to most Canadians. Perhaps he would be beneficiary if Trudeau misfires during the course of the next five weeks. But Trudeau is aiming squarely at O'Toole and pouncing on him for not requiring Tory candidates to be vaccinated. While Trudeau focuses his attention on O'Toole, it could give Singh an opportunity to build some capital and goodwill.
Still, the odds are in Trudeau's favor and it is his election to lose.
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