Saturday, January 30, 2021

Is It a Good Sign That It Took 64 Days for U.S. COVID-19 Cases to Double From 13M to 26M?

The United States has now recorded more than 26 million COVID-19 cases. According to Johns Hopkins University, this country now stands at 26,032,572 COVID-19 cases with 438,708 deaths representing a mortality rate of 1.7%.

It took 64 days for the number of COVID-19 cases to double from 13 million to 26 million. Is this a good sign?

In most ways it isn't when you consider that it took 281 days to reach 13 million. The disease is spreading far more rapidly now that it did last spring or summer. 

On the other hand, it took 53 days for the number of cases to double from 9 million to 18 million. Another 53 days to double from 10 million to 20 million. It took 55 days to double from 11 to 22 million while taking 58 days to double from 12 million to 24 million. We recorded our 14 millionth case on December 3, 2020. If we hit the 28 million mark after February 5th then there's some progress. 

But how many deaths will have occurred during this period? That same day we recorded our 14 millionth COVID-19 case, we also saw the death toll climb above 275,000. Whenever we hit 28 million cases we will likely be somewhere between 450,000 and 475,000 deaths. 

So we're very, very far from rounding the turn. A better sign of progress would be getting the daily counts back down below 100,000, but that might be difficult with all the new COVID strains which have emerged. Of course, Dr. Fauci wanted us to get below 10,000 cases before last fall or "we're going to have a bad situation." Well, we know what we got.

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