Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is said to be only days away from death. Navalny has been on a hunger strike since March 31st in protest of his captors not permitting him to see his medical team.
U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has said that if Navalny dies in captivity that there will be "consequences".
This raises two questions. What if Navalny dies? And what consequences will Russia face if he does?
If Navalny dies he will become a martyr. His martyrdom will provoke Russians into the streets. Putin's forces will crush any such uprising. There will be howl of protests but Putin will not care other than to criticize our own police forces treatment of protesters.
Which brings me to question two. Will the consequences be more sanctions? The Biden Administration imposed sanctions only a few days ago. The only consequence that will matter to Putin is if the U.S. finds a way to force Russian troops out of Crimea. But with U.S. troops soon to leave Afghanistan, I can't see the Biden Administration implementing a military solution.
The Russian Ambassador to the U.K. says that Navalny will not be permitted to die in prison. But given how Russia tried to kill Navalny last year I'm not inclined to put much stock in those words.
With all this said, I hope the Russians will allow Navalny's medical team to treat him and avert an international crisis. But I'm not holding my breath.
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