Friday, April 9, 2021

U.S. COVID-19 Cases Top 31 Million; Will We Add Our Next 1 Million in Less Than 16 Days?

This morning, the number of COVID-19 cases in the United States topped 31 million. According to Johns Hopkins University, there are 31.069,653 cases resulting in the deaths of 560,953 Americans representing a mortality rate of 1.8%. 

Over the past month or so there has been some degree of stabilization in new COVID cases. This country has been adding 1 million new cases every 16 days. It took 16 days to get from 30 million to 31 million new cases. It took 16 days to get from 29 million to 30 million new cases. It took 16 days to get from 28 million to 29 million cases after taking 13 days to get from 27 million to 28 million cases. 

I have a bad feeling it will take less than 16 days to get to 32 million cases. This bad feeling is based on superspreader events like the Texas Rangers home opener earlier this week which had a capacity crowd. Despite mask requirements, this was observed in the breach

If the Rangers home opener does prove to be a superspreader event and results in adding another 1 million new cases in less than 16 days there does a remain a question of whether its impact will be mitigated by the increasing number of vaccinations and eligibility for the same. As of this writing, Texas has 17.27% of its population fully vaccinated ranking it 45th out of 51 states (including the District of Columbia). 

Sadly but not surprisingly, Georgia is dead last at 14.35%. If Georgia spent as much time and energy in getting people vaccinated as it did to prevent people from voting we would be number one in the nation. This notwithstanding, I am scheduled to get my first COVID vaccine in six days from now. Still, I shall tread lightly. I wish more among us would do the same.

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