One week from today, Israel's Knesset is expected to dissolve thereby ending the year long left-right coalition government between Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid.
Should this come to pass, Lapid will succeed Bennett as Prime Minister until new elections are held. The election date is expected to be set for October 25th. This will mark Israel's fifth election since April 2019.
The election of April 2019 marked the first election in Israeli history to fail to see the formation of a coalition government. This would happen yet again in September 2019. Elections in March 2020 would see a coalition government between Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz. The plan was for Netanyahu and Gantz to split the premiership as Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Shamir did during the 1980's. However, Netanyahu would renege on the agreement at the end of 2020.
Israel's most recent elections were held in March 2021 which resulted in the coalition between Bennett and Lapid and ended Netanyahu's dozen year tenure in the premiership. What made this coalition unique was the inclusion of Mansour Abbas' Ra'am Party marking the first time an Arab political party had been part of Israel's governing coalition.
However, the government will collapse because the Knesset failed to agree on extending the legal status o West Bank settlers. Parties supporting the settlers voted against the measure at the behest of Netanyahu who has been maneuvering his way back to the Prime Minister's official residence at Beit Aghion. Netanyahu was particularly successful in getting members of Bennett's own Yamina Party to turn against the coalition beginning with the resignation of government whip Idit Silman back in April.
Frankly, I'm surprised this government lasted as long as it did. When the Bennett-Lapid government formed a year ago, I made this observation:
I can't see a coalition of secularists, settlers and Islamists lasting four months much less four years. It would therefore not shock me if before the end of 2021 that Israelis will go to the polls for the second time this year and the fifth time since 2019. All of which would give Netanyahu a chance to become Prime Minister for a third time.
OK, so the government lasted six months longer than I thought it would. Nevertheless, the alliance was doomed to failure. There would be a weak link and, as it turned out, it was the settlers and Bibi knew it all to well.
Mind you this doesn't guarantee Bibi will become Prime Minister for the third time. Even if Likud wins the most seats who is going want to form a power sharing agreement with him given what he did to Gantz in December 2020? And what of his ongoing corruption trial?
Even though Lapid is ostensibly only a caretaker Prime Minister, Israeli voters might like him in that role and prefer him over the return of Netanyahu. Lapid is due to take an important place on the international stage when President Biden visits Israel next month.
If the election itself is to take place in October as planned it will likely take several months to form a new coalition which gives Lapid more time to establish himself. And perhaps no coalition is formed at all and a yet another election comes to pass. Again all this is to Lapid's favor.
Benjamin Netanyahu might be a happy man. But he might not be so happy by the end of 2022.
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