Will Silman's Defection From Bennett-Lapid Coalition Bring Bibi Back to Power?

Less than 10 months after forming a new government in Israel, the coalition led by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Foreign Affairs Minister Yair Lapid and supported by Mansour Abbas, may have come to premature end with the defection of Idit Silman, who served as the government whip. Silman will now sit with the opposition Likud Party led by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Silman's resignation caught Bennett and all of Israel by surprise. She cited the government's decision to enforce a High Court ruling that hospitals could not forbid people from bringing in non-kosher food during Passover which starts next week. Silman claimed the government's policy was undermining Israel's Jewish identity. For his part, Bennett asserted that Silman had broken after months of verbal threats against her and her family by Netanyahu supporters. 

At this point, one of two things could happen. Likud could try to form a new coalition within the Knesset as it is presently constituted or move to dissolve the Knesset and force a new election. If the latter occurs, it will be Israel's fifth election since April 2019. It would also been Lapid would become Prime Minister until elections are held.

There are several questions worth asking.

What promises did Netanyahu make to Silman? After all, Silman's defection serves Bibi's interests. There has to be a quid pro quo.

Who would want to be a coalition partner with Bibi? Netanyahu and Benny Gantz formed a coalition after the March 2020 election similar to what Bennett and Lapid have now. Instead of relinquishing the premiership to Gantz, Bibi gambled, forced early elections and lost. What Israeli politician is going to trust Netanyahu in a power sharing agreement?

And what of Netanyahu's ongoing corruption trial. Anyone running against Bibi in the election would be a fool not to raise doubts about his fitness to return to office. 

If Netanyahu's gambit fails and he remains on the opposition benches and/or is convicted in his trial then I think the clock will have run out on Israel's longest serving Prime Minister. 

Then again one would be foolish to underestimate Netanyahu. One doesn't become Israel's longest serving Prime Minister without having a few tricks up his sleeve.