Saturday, June 25, 2022

A GOP Push For a National Abortion Ban Could Help Democrats in Midterms

I have one further thought to add to my commentary on yesterday's decision by the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade. 

Among my five observations were that this decision is going to embolden conservatives. One way I did not mention how it would embolden them is former Vice-President Mike Pence's proposal for a national abortion ban.

Depending how vigorously Republicans campaign for a national abortion ban it could have the effect of not only mobilizing Democratic voters but keeping independent voters in the Democratic column as nearly 60% of Americans favor leaving Roe in place. If Republicans are perceived not being merely content to overturn Roe and wish to ban abortion altogether, I suspect it will be a bridge too far for a great many voters - particularly suburban female voters. 

Of course, the odds are still in the GOP's favor come November. But I could easily see a scenario in which Republicans win control of the House but Democrats retain control of the Senate and thus have sway to confirm justices who find the reversal of Roe to be abhorrent. Equally as important, any effort to ban abortion on a national level by legislative means would be dead on arrival.

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