French President Emmanuel Macron has won a second term in office decisively defeating his Far Right rival Marine Le Pen. With 88% of the polls in, Macron leads Le Pen by more than 13 points (56.8% to 43.2%).
Despite Macron's decisive win, Le Pen's vote tally gone up 10% since 2017.
Le Pen might have lost yet again, but does this defeat merely forestall the inevitably of either her or some other right-wing populist winning the presidency in 2027?
As a result of constitutional reforms enacted in 2008, Macron is prohibited from seeking a third consecutive term in 2027. After a decade of Macron, who can say the French electorate won't be prepared to give Le Pen the keys to the Elysee Palace?
Much of this will depend on Russia's place in the world in five years from now? Will Putin still rule Russia? Will Russia have taken over Ukraine? If so then will Russia see fit to invade an EU nation? If the answer to any of these questions is yes and Le Pen is still making excuses for Moscow then she will likely be kept away from power. But would that give an opening to another right-wing populist who would be independent of Russia or at least be perceived as independent of Russia? Then again what right-wing populist doesn't pay fealty to Russia these days? Certainly not Eric Zemmour.
On the other hand Le Pen might stand a better chance in five years from now if she ends up facing someone from the Far Left like Jean-Luc Melenchon or one of his acolytes.
Further complicating matters would be if Donald Trump were to return to the White House after the 2024 election or if Ron DeSantis were nominated in his stead.
Whatever the future holds, at least for the moment, the world can breathe a sigh of relief where France is concerned.
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