Macron & Le Pen Headed for French Presidential Election Rematch

French President Emmanuel Macron is headed for a rematch with Marine Le Pen of the National Front after the first round of France's presidential election. With 96% of the vote in, Macron leads with 27.4% of the vote with Le Pen earning 24% of the vote. The runoff will take place two weeks from today on April 24th. 

In 2017, Macron defeated Le Pen by a 2 to 1 margin (66.1% to 33.9%). Although Macron is favored to win, with five years under his belt, no one is expecting that margin of victory this time around. 

Keep in mind that no French President has been successfully re-elected since the late Jacques Chirac 20 years ago. Nicolas Sarkozy was ousted after a single term in office by Francois Hollande and Hollande didn't bother to seek a second term in office. So one cannot discount the possibility of a Le Pen victory.

And it is this prospect of a Le Pen victory which will motivate some voters to cast their ballot for Macron. That vote will be more anti-Le Pen than pro-Macron. It will also be something of an anti-Putin vote. 

Le Pen has been a longtime ally of Putin. Her party certainly likes Russian money. Though she might try, Le Pen can no more distance herself from Putin than she can from her anti-Semitism. Though she tried to court Jews during the 2017 election that all blew up when she claimed France wasn't responsible for sending Jews to concentration camps.

While Macron is certainly right to challenge Le Pen's closeness to Putin, his conversations with the Russian leader since his invasion of Ukraine haven't done much to inspire confidence. But if Le Pen prevails then whatever EU solidarity there is for Ukraine goes out the window. 

Let me put it another way. A Le Pen victory in France would be as catastrophic as Trump's election here in 2016. Right-wing authoritarianism would take hold in Western Europe. It would be further cemented if Trump were to return to the White House in 2024.

As with Joe Biden, a vote for Emmanuel Macron is a vote for democracy. As with Donald Trump, a vote for Marine Le Pen is a vote for dictatorship. We know which result Vladimir Putin would prefer.