Earlier this week, Canada's Conservative Party selected Erin O'Toole its new leader. The outcome was something of a surprise as he bested the better known Peter MacKay on the third ballot. MacKay had previously led the now defunct Progressive Conservative Party of Canada before its merger with the Reform Party to become the Conservative Party of Canada in 2003.
O'Toole, a 47-year old MP from Durham (a constituency about two hours northwest of Toronto) campaigned to MacKay's right touting himself to be "True Blue". Unlike the U.S., in Canada the Liberals are red and the Tories are blue (while the NDP is orange) although as nearly as right-wing as other leadership rivals Leslyn Lewis and Derek Sloan. But their supporters would gravitate to O'Toole giving him a decisive 57% to 43% third ballot victory.
This was O'Toole's second attempt at the Tory party leadership having run in 2017 finishing third behind Andrew Scheer and Maxime Bernier. Scheer resigned back in December after falling short in last October's election while Bernier left the Tories to establish the People's Party of Canada. Three years ago, O'Toole positioned himself as a centrist. This time he read the tea leaves better. The question remains if he can do the same with the Canadian electorate.
O'Toole might get his chance sooner rather than later. As I wrote earlier this month, the Liberal government of Justin Trudeau has been embroiled in a scandal in which a large government contract was rewarded to WE Canada which had previously compensated members of Trudeau's family for speaking engagements, a fact Trudeau failed to disclose. The same was the case with Finance Minister Bill Morneau whose daughter worked for WE forcing his subsequent resignation although the cover story was that he and Trudeau had differences over COVID policy.
Following Morneau's resignation, Trudeau prorogued Parliament. This effectively ended any further investigation of Trudeau's conduct in the WE Canada affair by House of Commons parliamentary committees. Prorogation is a tactic that was frequently deployed by the previous Conservative government led by Stephen Harper (during which O'Toole briefly served as Minister of Veterans Affairs). So the Tories are on weak ground if they protest too much.
The House of Commons is scheduled to reconvene on September 23rd at which time the Trudeau government will present a throne speech outlining its agenda. This is subject to a vote of confidence and since the Liberals have a minority parliament a defeat could result in early elections. While there's no doubt the Conservatives will be chomping at the bit with O'Toole as will the Bloc Quebecois, the Liberals' fate will be up to the NDP which has been propping them up since last year's election.
If the NDP joins the Conservatives and the Bloc in forcing early elections, O'Toole will have to hit the ground running and give Canadians confidence he can head an honest, competent government. Despite the scandal, the Liberals have an 8 point edge over the Conservatives in the most recent Leger poll. The question remains if O'Toole can define Trudeau as a leader Canadians can no longer trust or if Trudeau can make O'Toole look like a tool of President Trump. Yet even if Trudeau manages to frame O'Toole in that manner he still must contend with NDP leader Jagmeet Singh.
On the other hand if Singh props up Trudeau then O'Toole can bide his time and paint Singh as a leader who perpetuated Trudeau's corruption when Canada is currently scheduled to vote in October 2023. Whether its a short game or a long game, O'Toole will have to prove himself to Canadian voters.
While I believe Canada would probably be better off with O'Toole than Trudeau in the long run it is still a country that doesn't have to worry about any political party politicizing a pandemic. Whoever the Prime Minister is Canada is a normal, stable country. The same cannot be said of the United States at the present time.
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