Friday, December 29, 2017

Will The Iran Protests Lead To a Persian Spring?

In the space of 24 hours, protests in Iran have escalated from anger about government price hikes on food to protests against the government itself. Protesters have called for the ouster of President Rouhani and the Islamic Republic itself.

This represents the largest protests in Iran since June 2009 following an "election" which saw then "re-election" of then President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad before security forces brutally took them down. At the time, President Obama said America mustn't be seen as "meddling" in support of the protesters. By contrast, President Trump has tweeted in support of the protesters:

Many reports of peaceful protests by Iranian citizens fed up with regime’s corruption & its squandering of the nation’s wealth to fund terrorism abroad. Iranian govt should respect their people’s rights, including right to express themselves. The world is watching!

This is definitely the most sensible thing he has ever tweeted.

I suspect Trump's support will embolden the protesters. In which case, we could have a Persian Spring on our hands. The question is how long will the regime wait before it sees fit to crush the protests. Should they violently quash the protest then what will Trump's move be in response? Will he cancel the Iran nuclear deal? Will he contemplate a military invasion? Or will there be a covert effort to support indigenous forces to overthrow the regime? Or will supporters of the Iran nuclear deal like Mattis and Tillerson convince Trump to do an about face and abandon the protesters?

I have a feeling this could become the biggest story in the world in 2018.

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