The day after Canadians elected a Liberal minority government under Mark Carney, Alberta's United Conservative Party Premier Danielle Smith introduced legislation, known as Bill 54, to lower the threshold under which a provincial referendum can be held from 20% of eligible voters in the province to 10% of eligible voters.
The effect of this legislation when passed (and it will surely be passed because the UCP hold a majority in the legislature) will be a referendum regarding Alberta's status in Canada. For her part, Smith claims holding a referendum will prevent the emergence of a separatist party in Alberta. This strikes me as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Smith is creating the conditions which grant legitimacy to the notion of Alberta leaving Canada.
Now unlike the two Quebec referendums held in 1980 and in 1995, any referendum held in Alberta would have to be done under the auspices of the Canada Clarity Act. Passed in 2000, it gives the House of Commons the authority to determine if the provincial referendum had a clear question passed a clear majority. If those thresholds are met, then the province would have to enter into the negotiations with the Canadian government regarding the terms of secession while taking into account the views of other interested parties such as Canada's Aboriginal peoples. It would also require a constitutional amendment that would need the approval of 7 out of 10 Canadian provinces representing at least 50% of the population.
So, what would be the question in the Alberta referendum? Would it be for independence? Or would it be to join the United States? In other words, to partially achieve President Trump's dream of a 51st state on Canadian soil.
Whatever the question might be, and the conditions required by the Clarity Act, it is unlikely Alberta would leave Canada. So why would Smith set these events into motion? For her own political ambitions.
Smith began her political life as a Tory then defected to the Wildrose Alliance eventually becoming leader of the Wildrose Party and also the leader of Alberta's official opposition after the 2012 Alberta provincial election. Two years later, Smith and several members of the Wildrose caucus crossed the floor and rejoined the Tories under the leadership of Jim Prentice and Smith was rewarded with a cabinet portfolio.
However, Smith was unsuccessful in winning a Tory nomination in the 2015 provincial election. It was just as well as the Tories went down to defeat at the hands of Rachel Notley and the Alberta NDP. But Smith would bide her time in talk radio.
In 2022, Smith would reemerge winning the leadership of the United Conservative Party following the resignation of Jason Kenney as Premier following his handling of COVID. Smith campaigned against COVID measures and in support of legislation called the Alberta Sovereignty Act which for all intents and purposes allows the province to unilaterally disregard federal legislation it deems to be unconstitutional or infringes upon its sovereignty. However, the act has not yet been tested though this could soon change.
Now fast-forward to the present with Smith now pushing for a referendum the day after the Liberals won their fourth consecutive Canadian federal election. As stated earlier, this push is to advance Smith's political ambitions. Specifically, I believe this ambition is to become the leader of Canada's Conservative Party and Prime Minister of Canada.
Notwithstanding the fact that the Tories increased both their seat total and their popular vote under Pierre Poilievre, he could not do the same in his own riding. By the good graces of an Alberta Tory MP, he will run in the wild rose province. But the by-election is yet to be called and until Poilievre resumes his duties as leader of the Official Opposition, Smith can use this time to steal his thunder. No doubt an Alberta referendum could complicate things for Poilievre.
Smith has also given Prime Minister Carney a list of six demands Canada must fulfill mostly around energy policy or there will be a constitutional crisis in six months. I doubt there is anything Carney could do to mollify Smith. Thus, Smith is acting in bad faith and intends to create a crisis which gives her the casus belli to justify holding a referendum.
With that said, should a referendum be held, I think Smith will nominally claim she is in favor of remaining in Canada. Should Alberta voters reject separation or union with the United States then she could claim that Albertans have reaffirmed they want to stay in Canada, and she just wanted to give Albertans a voice. However, if a referendum passes, she can use the vote to justify the imposition of more demands upon Ottawa.
This brings me back to Poilievre. Should another federal election be held between Carney and Poilievre and Canadians re-elect the Liberals both out of fear of President Trump and out of fear of Alberta leaving Canada then Poilievre is done politically thereby giving Smith the opportunity to run for the Conservative Party leadership.
Now there's no guarantee she would win against someone like Ontario Premier Doug Ford or Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston. However, I suspect the average Tory is more likely to back the MAGA friendly Smith who held talks with Trump before he returned to the White House in January.
It would be reasonable to ask that if Canadians fear Trump and the prospect of Alberta separation then why would Canadians for a Conservative Party led by Smith? Well, there's a reasonable chance that by the time Smith would run in a federal election as the leader of the Conservative Party, Trump could be out of the White House. I'm also sure that Smith is banking upon voters having fatigue with the Liberals and souring upon Carney.
There is another wrinkle in the ointment. If there is a referendum in Alberta, there could be one in Saskatchewan. While Premier Scott Moe of the conservative Saskatchewan Party says he does not support separation, he is also not in favor of the status quo and isn't exactly discouraging efforts to organize a referendum there. An Angus Reid poll indicates that 36% of Alberta voters and 34% of Saskatchewan voters want to leave Canada.
As much danger as Canada faces from President Trump in the short term, the greater danger might very well be from within in the long term. And for what? So that Danielle Smith, champion of Alberta and Western Canada, can reside in 24 Sussex Drive in Ottawa?
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