Scarcely 48 hours after word leaked that the U.S. Supreme Court intends to overturn Roe v. Wade, the Republican controlled legislature has seen fit to advance HB 813 - The Abolition of Abortion in Louisiana Act of 2022 out of committee and is scheduled for a floor debate next week.
Should the bill become law, life would begin at fertilization. As such any girl or woman in Louisiana who has an abortion or any entity which provides an abortion could be charged with murder. This bill does not provide an exception for rape, incest or the life of the mother.
In other words, an underaged girl who was impregnated by her rapist and who saw fit to have an abortion would be deemed in the eyes of Louisiana to be just as much of a criminal as the man who raped her. Indeed, there's a good chance the underaged girl would be subject to a far harsher penalty than her rapist.
There is also a provision in HB 813 which would disregard any federal court rulings against it while impeaching and removing any state judges who attempt to block it. This is, of course, an asinine position. All statutes subject to judicial scrutiny at the state and federal level. By the logic of this bill, any state could pass any legislation and deem it to be immune from constitutional challenge. If this is possible why have a judiciary at all? Why have federalism for that matter?
It would not surprise me to see this legislation passed, be struck down by the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals and that ruling upheld by the Supreme Court (despite its ideological tilt) with Louisiana responding by paraphrasing Andrew Jackson, "The Supreme Court made their decision, now let them enforce it." The failure to enforce that decision would effectively mean the end of federalism in America. If the federal government did enforce it and Louisiana resisted with violence then it would spark the beginning of a new Civil War.
On the other hand, I could also see the Supreme Court upholding this law. If the Supremes are content to overturn Roe v. Wade with the intent of leaving abortion to the states then why wouldn't they rule in Louisiana's favor? In which case, girls and women in Louisiana (with a lot of other states to follow) would become second class citizens and would likely flee to more liberal states and even Canada to obtain an abortion. After all, Karina Gould, Canada's Minister of Families, has indicated that American women would be welcome to come to Canada to for that very purpose. There would be effectively be an Underground Railroad for abortion services.
It is worth noting that Louisiana has a Democratic Governor. However, John Bel Edwards is a very conservative Democrat who is virulently anti-choice. In 2019, Edwards signed a so-called heartbeat bill which would make abortion illegal after six weeks of pregnancy, a point at which most women don't even know they are pregnant. To this point, Edwards has declined comment on the Roe leak nor has he indicated if he will sign HB 813 into law. From where I sit, I believe it is more likely than not that Edwards will give the bill his assent.
Aside from the Roe leak, this legislation is also a consequence of our Trumpian age. During the 2016 presidential campaign, Trump stated "there has to be some form of punishment" for women who obtain abortions. While Trump swiftly walked back that statement after a significant backlash, he nonetheless opened the door for the sort of legislation we are now seeing in Louisiana. Abortion is merely one more guardrail Trump saw fit to weaken just enough so that someone else could pry it loose.
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