Tonight Politico published an explosive story in which leaked draft documents from the U.S. Supreme Court show that the highest court in the land intends to overturn Roe v. Wade which Justice Samuel Alito writing the majority opinion. As the article notes, however:
Deliberations on controversial cases have in the past been fluid. Justices can and sometimes do change their votes as draft opinions circulate and major decisions can be subject to multiple drafts and vote-trading, sometimes until just days before a decision is unveiled. The court’s holding will not be final until it is published, likely in the next two months.
Notwithstanding this possibility, the horse has left the barn. The entire dynamic of the 2022 midterm elections have changed. Up until now, Republicans have been favored to regain the House and possibly the Senate. But with the prospect of women losing the right to control their own bodies, the motivation to vote Democrat becomes very, very personal. With Roe v. Wade now under dire threat, Democrats can pledge to codify Roe in legislation.
Of course, it's possible that this current draft could be watered down. But even if it is watered down there is a conservative majority on the court which is prepared to overturn Roe v. Wade along with Casey v. Planned Parenthood in some manner. Depending on where Chief Justice Roberts stands, it will likely be a 6-3 or 5-4 vote to overturn Roe.
The only way Roe isn't overturned is if one of the conservative justices dies between now and the ruling which would give President Biden an opportunity to appoint a new justice and possibly shift the balance of power on the Court. Barring that unlikely scenario, Democrats have found their issue at the ballot box.
American women under the age of 50 have never known life without Roe v. Wade and most of those women who were on hand when abortion was illegal do not want their daughters and granddaughters to be put back into that precarious position again.
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