Of course, I have a fairly good idea that tomorrow is going to be a great night for the Republicans and two ominous years for the country.
Not only do I believe that Republicans will regain the House of Representatives, but that they will regain the Senate. Democrats will fail to make breakthroughs in both Ohio and Pennsylvania while Republicans will gain seats in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire and possibly even Washington. The contest between Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker in Georgia will probably come down to a runoff next month but the GOP could gain there as well. With that said, I wonder if Mitch McConnell's days will be numbered because of defeated, former President Trump's disapproval.
Democrats will win in some places. I expect Josh Shapiro to be elected Governor of Pennsylvania and Gretchen Whitmer to be re-elected in Michigan, but their margins of victories could be too close for comfort. This is just one of those years where Democrats are damned if they debate (John Fetterman) and damned if they don't (Katie Hobbs). One would think that an unemployment rate of 3.7% would be good news for Democrats. But Republicans have convinced voters that Joe Biden has singlehandedly put us into a recession because of inflation while also convincing voters that crime is at an all-time high. It isn't but it's complicated and voters want easy answers.
Speaking of crime, amid armed Republicans intimidating voters, I have a bad feeling we will see a mass shooting or shootings at polling stations. For a country that has had mass shootings at concerts, schools, movie theaters, grocery stores and houses of worship is it really a stretch of the imagination that one would not happen at a polling station.
Now I did fear this would happen during the 2020 election, but it did not come to pass fortunately. But because it did not come to pass I underestimated the events that preceded January 6, 2021. This I cannot do for the foreseeable future.
But let us assume that tomorrow's vote occurs peacefully and we freely elect Republicans to take over Congress along with several Governors' mansions and Secretaries of State. For starters, no Republican Congress is ever going to certify the election of a Democratic President ever again. I can certainly see Biden besting Trump yet again in 2024, but I can also see a Republican Congress disregarding those results.
I also wonder how many times a Republican House will impeach President Biden over matters of policy. Remember that Marjorie Taylor Greene introduced an impeachment resolution against Biden the day after he took office. Kevin McCarthy might be Speaker of the House but MTG will have the real power. While I cannot imagine even a Republican controlled Senate impeaching Biden, repeated impeachments by a Republican controlled House even for the most trivial of matters will have the effect of weakening his authority. In which case, Democrats will likely move Heaven and Earth to keep Biden from seeking re-election even if Republican efforts to impeach Biden are as baseless as their claims about the 2020 election. The simple truth is that many Democrats have never accepted Biden and never will.
Then there are the states will not only elect Republican Governors, but Republican Secretaries of States. These Secretaries of State will be avowed election deniers who will have the authority to oversee elections. Then there is a state like Georgia where a Republican like Brad Raffensperger (who is not viewed favorably by Trump) will likely be re-elected but will return to office with diminished authority. Republican Secretaries of State, Republican controlled state election boards will no more certify a Democratic victory than a Republican controlled Congress the will of the people be damned. This only need happen in one state and then the rest fall like dominoes.
The sad truth is that I don't think most Americans really care about democracy. Most Americans want high quality goods and services at low prices and I suspect that many would be content to surrender their freedoms in exchange for a $300 gift card from Amazon. Most Americans have never known a system other than democracy and they don't think it has given them very much and are ready to try something else. So they can spit at democracy. What they get in its place will do far worse than spit back. But as demonstrated with COVID, we learn things the hard way if we choose to learn at all.
There is always the possibility that the results won't be as bleak as I expect. There could be a scenario where Democrats hold onto the Senate and hold onto some key Governors' mansions and Secretary of State posts. But I'm not counting on it. I am preparing for the worst. Even if the worst of it doesn't come tomorrow it will soon follow. And when it does a lot of people are going to be hurt and killed and most of us won't give a damn and either will look the other way or pretend it didn't happen.
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