Why It's Premature to Declare Netanyahu The Winner of 2022 Israeli Election

A number of news reports have already declared Benjamin Netanyahu the winner of the 2022 Israeli elections. 

I'm not inclined to concur with this conclusion just yet.

After all, there were similar declarations when Israeli last went to the polls in March 2021 with Netanyahu claiming "a great victory."  Bibi would instead end up on the opposition benches.

I'm not saying Netanyahu won't return to power. I just think it's too early to draw conclusions because voting is only one part of the Israeli electoral process. The other part is cobbling together a coalition and there is no guarantee Bibi will be able to pull that off. After all, he has been unable to pull that off in three of the previous four elections which have been held since April 2019. 

Let us also keep in mind that putting together a coalition takes months. Indeed, the coalition between Naftali Bennett and current Prime Minister Yair Lapid brokered by Mansour Abbas did not form until three months after the election. Even if the composition of the Knesset is more conservative and nationalistic this time around it doesn't necessarily mean the parties will want Netanyahu to lead them. They might turn to someone else to lead or Israel could end up holding its sixth election in four years. 

Even after all the votes have been counted the 2022 Israeli election is far from over.