Thursday, November 10, 2022

Republicans Will Rally Back to Trump If He's Indicted

The big political story of the day is the near universal consensus among Republicans that the party's lackluster performance lay at the feet of defeated, former President Trump.

Various news outlets owned by Rupert Murdoch (i.e. Fox News, Wall Street Journal and New York Post) have seen fit to taunt Trump as has National Review. Newly elected Republican Congressman Mike Lawler says Republicans should move on from Trump. Ditto for Virginia Lieutenant-Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. They are coalescing around Florida Governor Ron DeSantis who won re-election by nearly 20 points over Democrat (and former Republican) Charlie Crist and has been the main focus of Trump's ire in recent days

To be sure, Trump still has his allies such as Tucker Carlson and Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz. But others have begun to waver with Trump's former White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany wants Trump to wait until after the Georgia runoff to announce his third White House bid.

Yet time and again, Republicans have stuck with Trump from the moment he descended the escalator at Trump Tower to deride Mexicans, question John McCain's heroism through Charlottesville, Helsinki and the events of January 6th. While DeSantis has emerged as a plausible challenger, Republicans quickly closed ranks around Trump after the raid on Mar-a-Lago three months ago putting a DeSantis into a box

With the breadth of his victory in comparison to GOP performances around the country, DeSantis is out of the box. But if Republicans rallied around Trump after a raid by the FBI then imagine what would happen if Trump were actually indicted. While DeSantis has conservative cred, he doesn't have a base of support who would run through a wall for him and then rebuild it only to run through it again.

I also suspect that if Republicans do capture both the House and the Senate that things will calm down somewhat. For the moment, Republicans have neither of these things. They might not win with a huge majority but they will have a power they do not have now and that will ease pressure on Trump and put the focus back on President Biden.

The only scenario in which I see this not coming to pass is if Trump is indicted and DeSantis says good riddance. This would be a big risk to take as he could alienate the MAGAverse. If the gamble pays off then maybe DeSantis could kill the king. But until the king is killed then Trump isn't finished. Trump might be having a bad day today, but he also had a bad day on January 6th but in the days that followed his devotees worshipped him even more. I mean Trump could always shoot someone on Fifth Avenue.

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