Tuesday, August 9, 2022

FBI Raid Hasn't Handed Trump the Presidency, But GOP is Circling The Wagons


MAGA world is making the claim the FBI raid at Mar-a-Lago yesterday is the best thing to have happened to defeated former President Donald Trump. 

During an appearance on CNN, former Trump White House Director of Strategic Communications Alyssa Farah Griffin claimed the raid could hand Trump the presidency in 2024. Griffin said“This, I’m hoping, goes beyond simply not complying with some archiving laws or the DOJ just handed Donald Trump the Republican nominee and potentially the presidency."

No, the FBI raid will not hand Trump the presidency. It will not motivate independent voters who are on the fence to break Trump's way. The only people whose voting behavior this will impact are people who already view Trump as a victim and who believe the 2020 election was stolen from him. While it is a significant voting bloc, it would not put Trump over the top.

However, the FBI raid will make Republicans circle the wagons around Trump and make those who were starting to favor Florida Governor Ron DeSantis return to the fold. An example of this is Matt Vespa at Townhall.com. While Vespa foamed, "The FBI is the Democratic Party's political hit squad," he does provide an insight into the mindset of the MAGAverse:

I was leaning toward Ron DeSantis. I would have been happy voting for either man, but it was a 51/49 split in favor of Ron until last night. The good news is that the debate about whether this would be a bloody duel between Trump and DeSantis is over. Before last night's events, I wouldn't be shocked if DeSantis had beaten Trump should both men run next year.

For his part, DeSantis came to Trump's defense wondering aloud if the raid had turned the U.S. into "a Banana Republic". This from the guy who goes after corporations which disagree with his politics. Nevertheless, the raid makes it more difficult for DeSantis to launch a challenge against Trump.

Mind you, I've never had a doubt in my mind that Trump will seek the GOP nomination in 2024 and it will be his for the asking. After all, this man has spent more than 18 months claiming he won an election that he lost. This tells me he wants back in the White House.

At best, DeSantis is a baby Trump. The only Republican who could launch an interesting, if quixotic challenge to Trump would be Liz Cheney. She would lose but she would be a thorn in his side and could bloody him in a way no other Republican could.

Still, the long and the short of it is that Donald Trump will be the 2024 Republican nominee. Any doubt if it was removed by the FBI raid. But there is still a doubt if America will be foolish enough to make him President again. 

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