Thoughts on The Mass Protests in Cuba

The fact there are mass protests in Cuba is a remarkable thing unto itself. Such a thing would never have happened during the Castro regime and there is the rub.

Although Miguel Diaz-Canel has been Cuba's President since October 2019, the top job in the country is General Secretary of the Communist Party. Diaz-Canel succeeded Raul Castro in that role only this past April. So Cuban dissidents undoubtedly saw an opening. They are not afraid of Diaz-Canel. At least not for now.

For his part, Diaz-Canel blames the U.S. embargo. Well, what else would you expect? But the embargo has been a fact of life in Cuba for six decades (despite former President Obama's easing of it). Cubans have never protested like this before and if Diaz-Canel doesn't get a handle on the protest there will soon be a power struggle within the Communist Party. In which case Diaz-Canel could seek outside help perhaps from Venezuela. 

The embargo hasn't helped Cuba but it also hasn't stopped Canada, the U.K. and the EU from being its trading partners. Combine a poor economy, a lack of political freedom and limited access to its homemade COVID-19 vaccines has surged into a storm of mass protest. 

It very much remains to be seen if the protests will amount to any meaningful change. But if these protests are the beginning of the end of communism and the start of multi-party democracy in Cuba then it could prove a huge feather in the cap of the Biden Administration winning over Cuban voters in Florida while neutralizing Republican opposition. Although there is a segment of the Democratic Party (and AOC is a part of it) which greatly admires Communist Cuba and probably won't be thrilled with President Biden praising the demonstrators.

Let me put it another way. America has skin where it comes to Cuba in a way it doesn't when it comes to places like Burma, Hong Kong or Ukraine when it comes to democracy protests. Those countries are a world away. Cuba is 90 miles from Florida. Whatever happens in Havana will be heard in Miami and spread from there.