Monday, February 11, 2019

What Are The Odds Trump Will Scuttle The New Congressional Border Deal?

From The Associated Press:

WASHINGTON — Congressional negotiators reached agreement Monday night to prevent a government shutdown and finance construction of new barriers along the U.S.-Mexico border, overcoming a late-stage hang-up over immigration enforcement issues that had threatened to scuttle the talks.

Republicans were desperate to avoid another bruising shutdown. They tentatively agreed to far less money for President Donald Trump’s border wall than the White House’s $5.7 billion wish list, settling for a figure of nearly $1.4 billion, according to congressional aides.

That means 55 miles of new fencing — constructed through existing designs such as metal slats instead of a concrete wall — but far less than the 215 miles the White House demanded in December. The fencing would be built in the Rio Grande Valley in Texas.

“We reached an agreement in principle,” said Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Richard Shelby, R-Ala., appearing with a bipartisan group of House and Senate lawmakers who concurred.

“Our staffs are just working out the details,” said House Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Nita Lowey, D-N.Y.
Sounds good, right?

But the devil is in the details. The devil in question here is, who else?, President Trump. Let's read the fine print:

Asked if Trump would back the deal, Shelby said: “We believe from our dealings with them and the latitude they’ve given us, they will support it. We certainly hope so.”

I'm going to need a lot more that "we certainly hope so." This is Trump with whom we are dealing. He must create another crisis.

Why would he go along with it? If he does, the Ann Coulters of the world will be screaming for neck and carp about a primary challenge. 

Of course, a government shutdown would be insane. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result. If Trump wants to make Pelosi even more popular by all means, but he will hurt a lot of people in the process many of whom have already been greatly harmed.

He could impose an emergency order which would immediately be put on hold by the courts. Trump could at least tell us supporters that he's fighting for the wall. But I suspect that if Trump had the authority to impose an emergency order then he would have done so already. 

It would be prudent if Trump were to agree to this deal and then make fun of Democratic presidential candidates on Twitter. But to paraphrase Ike & Tina Turner, Trump never makes anything easy or nice. There's a very good chance that we're in for another bumpy ride.

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