Trudeau Won't Resign: Will He Be a One Term Prime Minister?

Yesterday, the world's attention was focused on President Trump's former personal attorney Michael Cohen's testimony to Congress.


But there was another hearing yesterday which might prove even more damning to a world leader. About 600 miles north of Washington, D.C., Jody Wilson-Raybould, Canada's former Minister of Justice, testified before the House of Commons Justice Committee revealing the extent to which Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, his Minister of Finance and his senior advisers for pressuring her not to prosecute SNC-Lavalin, a Quebec based construction company accused of bribery and corruption. The Trudeau government was trying to protect the provincial Liberal government from defeat. Quebec voters decided to toss out the Liberals last October anyway in favor of the conservative Coalition Avenir Quebec. Wilson-Raybould did not care about political considerations and would not bow to their pressure. Trudeau retaliated by demoting Wilson-Raybould to Minister of Veterans Affairs in January. Wilson-Raybould resigned from cabinet earlier this month, but remains a member of the Liberal Party caucus although Trudeau could remove her. For his part, Trudeau denies Wilson-Raybould's testimony. But these days his word is no better than that of President Trump.


The scandal did claim one casualty as Trudeau's principal secretary Gerald Butts resigned earlier this month. But in light of Wilson-Raybould's testimony, Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer has called upon Trudeau to resign.


Whatever the damage, it is unlikely Trudeau will resign. But an election is due by October 21st of this year. Could he be tossed after a single term? If an election were held today, he certainly would. As of now, the Tories have a seven point lead over the Liberals in the polls. But Trudeau will delay and a lot can happen in eight months. Trudeau also has history on his side. One term majority governments are very rare. The last time a majority government only lasted a single term was the Conservative government of R.B. Bennett which held power during the height of the Great Depression between 1930 and 1935.


Trudeau also has the advantage of a potential splinter in the Conservative vote. Scheer is bound to lose votes to ex-Tory Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada which could help the Liberals retain seats in Ontario. The NDP has also been in a weakened state under Jagmeet Singh although he won a by-election in Vancouver earlier this week. A strong NDP vote would be of great benefit to the Tories. Singh could strengthen his hand if he could persuade Wilson-Raybould, who also represents a Vancouver area constituency, to defect from the Liberals.


As horrible as President Trump is, the SNC-Lavalin affair demonstrates that U.S. Republicans do not have a monopoly on corruption, cruelty, foolishness and stupidity. If we are to replace Trump next year, we will have to be sure that the person we choose conducts him or herself with the utmost honesty, integrity and respect. For all of Trump's faults, Trudeau's conduct proves that our search might be more difficult than we want to admit.