In 2017, Bernier finished a very close second to Andrew Scheer in the Conservative Party leadership race.
Bernier's announcement overshadows the beginning of this weekend's Conservative Party Convention in Halifax. Yet the timing is peculiar as it comes at a time when Prime Minister Trudeau has been on the defensive due to his response to a heckler who questioned his government's policies concerning those illegally crossing the U.S. border into Quebec making a point of calling her a racist. (My take on that situation can be read here). For his part, Scheer criticized Trudeau for "sweeping away legitimate questions with vile personal insults". All of which would be a good issue for Scheer to run on in next year's federal election and gain ground in Quebec in particular.
But Bernier's bombshell gives Trudeau a gift. Actually many gifts. Bernier gives the gift of divided conservatives. The same gift which enabled Jean Chretien to win three consecutive Liberal majority governments until the Progressive Conservatives and Reform Party united under the Conservative banner. With that Bernier also gives Trudeau the gift of re-election. Granted, Canada rarely has one term governments and Trudeau would have been tough to beat. But this pretty much seals it.
Of course, Bernier wants Trudeau to remain Prime Minister. If Scheer is forced out after an election defeat or some time thereafter then look for Bernier to return to the Conservative Party and claim the crown to which he believes he is entitled.
In reading Bernier's declaration of why he has left the Tories, I see a self-indulgent man who seeks to curry favor with President Trump:
I still cannot understand how a party that is supposed to defend free markets supports a small cartel that artificially increases the price of milk, chicken and eggs for millions of Canadian consumers.
More importantly, supply management has become one of the main stumbling blocks to an agreement with the United States on NAFTA. Former Conservative leaders Brian Mulroney and Rona Ambrose agree that it should be put on the table.
But the Conservative Party has been siding with the Liberal government. It also supports the retaliatory tariffs of the Liberal government, even though this is going to hurt our businesses and consumers. Even though Canada has no realistic chance of winning a trade war with a neighbour ten times larger. Even though we could successfully relaunch the negotiations if we put supply management on the table, and if we accept President Trump’s offer to negotiate a dismantling of all barriers, as the European Union has done.
Yes, there is a conservative argument against Canada's supply management system. But let's not pretend the U.S. doesn't provide generous subsidies to its dairy farmers. Bernier cites former Prime Minister Mulroney's statement that it should be put on the negotiating table. Of course, when Mulroney was Prime Minister his government vigorously protected supply management in the Uruguay round of GATT negotiations. It's easy for Mulroney to make such a statement when he does not have to answer to voters.
Bernier makes an utterly asinine statement when he argues "Canada has no realistic chance of winning a trade war with a neighbour ten times larger." And who started this "trade war"? Trump, not Trudeau. Last I checked, the WTO ruled in Canada's favor when the U.S. imposed duties on superglossed paper last month. Is Bernier really telling us that if he becomes Prime Minister and Trump complains about supply management or the pulp & paper industry that he's going to roll over and play dead? Unless he has a political death wish, I find this very hard to believe. And if this is the case do Canadians really want a Prime Minister who asks "how high?" when Trump says jump?
Furthermore, Bernier advocates following in the EU's footsteps. Well, Trump has rewarded the EU by threatening to impose a 25% tariff on all their automobiles. Where's the free market principles for which Bernier purportedly stands in that policy?
This isn't to say that Bernier's criticisms of multiculturalism and corporate welfare are without legitimacy or merit. But they are nothing more than window dressing for the real prize - new curtains at 24 Sussex Drive.
I'm glad Jason Kenney sees through Bernier's naked opportunism. But rank and file Conservative voters might not see it that way and could embrace Bernier as a Trump with a francophone accent.
Nothing would make Justin Trudeau happier.
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