Friday, August 24, 2018

Can Australia's New PM Expect a Rude Phone Call From President Trump?

If Americans remember Australia's newly former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull it will be as the ally President Trump berated over the phone call last August.

I cannot help but wonder if Turnbull's successor, Scott Morrison, can expect the same treatment some time in the near future even if their first conversation was cordial.

For Australians, the bigger question is whether Morrison can lead the Liberal-National coalition to an election victory and whether he can serve a full term.

The past 11 years have been a stark contrast to the previous 11 years when Liberal John Howard served four terms as Prime Minister before being defeated at the polls by the Labor Party led by Kevin Rudd. Towards the end of his first term, Rudd was challenged for the Labor Party leadership by Julia Gillard. Labor narrowly won the 2010 election with the help of the Greens and some independents. Rudd unsuccessfully challenged Gillard for the party leadership in 2012. Gillard also managed to turn back a challenge in early 2013 by Simon Crean. But three months later, Rudd wrested the leadership and Prime Minister's office back from Gillard only to be decisively defeated in the 2013 election by the Liberal-National Coalition now led by Tony Abbott.

I must confess that when the Liberal-National Coalition returned to power it would represent a return to the John Howard days. I couldn't have been more wrong. Two years into his mandate Abbott was ousted by Turnbull. Previously, Turnbull had been defeated by Abbott in a challenge for the Liberal Party leadership when they were in opposition in 2009. So I suppose turnabout was fair play for Turnbull who would lead the Liberal-National Coalition to a mandate in 2016 albeit by a smaller margin than Abbott had in 2013. But Turnbull could not complete his mandate either. After surviving a leadership challenge earlier this week by Peter Dutton, Turnbull could not do the same against Morrison. And you thought American politics was nasty.


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