Thoughts on the NDP-Green Party Minority Government in British Columbia

Voters in British Columbia went to the polls on May 9th, but it was nearly three weeks before they learned who would form their next government.


The Liberal Party had been in power since 2001 and was Canada's longest standing provincial government. The Liberals would win the most seats in the B.C. legislature with 43, but this was not enough to ensure their fifth consecutive majority government. The NDP won 41 seats while the Green Party won three seats. Despite their three seats, in a parliamentary democracy, the Greens emerged as the power brokers and would determine if they would extend Liberal rule or go with the NDP.


It should be understood the B.C. Liberals have no formal relationship with the federal Liberals led by Prime Minister Trudeau. After the collapse of the Social Credit Party following the 1991 election which brought the NDP to power, the province's conservative vote coalesced around the Liberals. (The Tories haven't been a force in B.C. politics since The Great Depression.)


Given that the B.C. Liberals are more free enterprise oriented than their distant federal cousins in Ottawa, it is little surprise the Greens could find little common ground with them particularly where it concerned the Kinder-Morgan Pipeline expansion.


The B.C. Liberals didn't help matters when Christy Clark, who has been the province's Premier since 2011, didn't meet face to face with Green Party leader Andrew Weaver. NDP leader John Horgan met face to face with Weaver on a day to day basis.


The NDP-Green minority government isn't official. Clark has to reconvene the legislature and hold a vote of confidence in the government. But this is a formality and it is a question of how long Clark wishes to delay the inevitable.


It should be clear this isn't a coalition government. The Greens will not be getting cabinet posts. Instead, the NDP will make a few concessions to them in exchange for their support. This minority government is supposed to last for four years. The biggest challenge with the NDP-Green alliance is that the interests of organized labor and environmentalists clash as was the case with the practice of clear cutting in Clayoquot Sound on Vancouver Island, a controversy which plagued the NDP government of Mike Harcourt in the early 1990's. Could Kinder-Morgan or Site C reignite those tensions? If the NDP should decide to proceed with the construction of B.C. Hydro's Site C Dam construction project or flip-flops on Kinder-Morgan then B.C. voters would go to the polls early.


The Green Party is currently at its zenith not only in B.C. politics, but in Canadian politics at large. But this could be short-lived. Junior partners in minority governments have a way of getting shafted in the next election. If the NDP-Green minority proves popular, voters will likely reward the NDP with a majority leaving the Greens in the red. If it doesn't prove popular, voters would further marginalize the Greens.


This election is also a boost to the NDP which now controls not only Canada's two western most provinces, but two of its wealthiest. In 2015, the Alberta NDP shocked the world when it ended the Tories' 44-year stranglehold on power under the leadership of Rachel Notley. This could be short-lived as the NDP has been trailing both the Wildrose and the Tories in the polls. The only saving grace is that Alberta's conservative vote could be split allowing the NDP to come up the middle which has prompted talks of a merger between the two parties. Should that come to pass who would lead it? Wildrose leader Brian Jean or new Tory leader Jason Kenney? But for the time being, the B.C. and Alberta governments led by Horgan and Notley could become very powerful allies among themselves and with the Trudeau Liberals in Ottawa who probably won't be sorry to see the B.C. Liberals gone from power.