Monday, June 5, 2017

Is Canada's New Conservative Leader a Scheer Genius?

Last month, Canada's Conservative Party chose Andrew Scheer as its new leader and now the leader of Canada's Official Opposition. It was something of a surprising choice. Maxime Bernier, a Quebec MP, had been the frontrunner and his odds of winning increased after Shark Tank host Kevin O'Leary's abrupt withdrawal from the race in April. But Bernier could not reach the 50% plus one threshold and Scheer's support grew on every ballot until he eclipsed Bernier in the 13th and final round.


Scheer is an interesting choice in that he is well known to Canadians as the former Speaker of the House, a position he held from 2011 to 2015. Unlike in the U.S. House of Representatives, the Speaker is a non-partisan position and maintains order in the Canadian House of Commons.


It is also interesting that Conservatives chose another leader from Western Canada as opposed to the Quebec based Bernier. Former Prime Minister Stephen Harper hailed from Alberta while Scheer is a native of Saskatchewan. Scheer will have a challenge to keep the Quebec wing of the Conservative Party happy and not tempt voters to run into the arms of the Bloc Quebecois. Scheer also has youth on his side turning 38 a week before his triumph. He is 7½ years younger than Prime Minister Trudeau.


Scheer will have tough odds against Trudeau. The last time a majority government only served a single term in office was R.B. Bennett's Tory government of 1930-1935 and that was, of course, because of The Great Depression. Trudeau's father Pierre won three majority governments (and one minority parliament) and given Trudeau's personal appeal, it will be tough for Scheer to overcome.
The short term goal for Scheer is to increase the number of Tory seats in the 2019 federal election. This will be a marathon, not a sprint.



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