Joe Biden finally got one on the win board earning a decisive victory in the South Carolina Democratic Primary. With 91% of the ballots counted, Biden has earned nearly 50% of vote (48.6%) finishing well ahead of Bernie Sanders who has garnered 20% of the vote. While Sanders finished a distant second, he will add to his delegate count.
Tom Steyer broke double digits with 11.3% of the vote but it cost him $22 million and no delegates to show for it. Following the results, Steyer dropped out of the race. So much for the Steyer surge I wondered about a few days ago.
Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar round out the vote with 8.1%, 7% and 3.1% of the vote, respectively. I've a feeling that Warren and Klobuchar might be joining Steyer in 72 hours especially if Warren and Klobuchar fail to win their home states on Super Tuesday with Sanders polling strong in both Massachusetts and Minnesota. The same question might also be posed of Michael Bloomberg if fails to win anywhere.
One must also ask if South Carolina represents a second wind for Biden or if he is a one hit wonder. While Sanders will probably win in California, Biden could do well in Arkansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Virginia and Texas. If this comes to pass, the Democratic contest could be a two way race between Bernie and Biden. But Buttigieg could come up the middle and make things interesting. But for the moment, Biden is in best position he's been in this entire campaign.
Saturday, February 29, 2020
Thursday, February 27, 2020
Did Trump Make Pence The Fall Guy on the Coronavirus?
Many critics are aghast that President Trump has appointed Vice-President Pence as his "czar" for the federal government's response to the Coronavirus. Some cite Pence's previous postures on smoking and HIV when he was in Congress and later Governor of Indiana.
I look at it a bit differently. From where I sit Trump is setting up Pence to be the fall guy. Of course, if the Coronavirus is nipped in the bud you can be sure Trump will take all the credit. But if America goes into recession or Americans start dying in large numbers because of the Coronavirus then Trump will tell the nation, "Don't look at me. Talk to Pence." This will give Trump all the reason in the world to drop Pence from the ticket and replace him with Nikki Haley, Tulsi Gabbard or whoever he wants to be his shadow. Why should Pence's fate be any different than that of James Mattis ("the world's most overrated general"), Rex Tillerson ("dumb as a rock") or John Kelly ("over his head")?
I understand those who object to Trump putting Pence in charge. But I believe they are missing the bigger picture. Given the inherently uncertain and volatile nature of the Coronavirus it is clear to me that Trump is setting Pence up for failure.
I look at it a bit differently. From where I sit Trump is setting up Pence to be the fall guy. Of course, if the Coronavirus is nipped in the bud you can be sure Trump will take all the credit. But if America goes into recession or Americans start dying in large numbers because of the Coronavirus then Trump will tell the nation, "Don't look at me. Talk to Pence." This will give Trump all the reason in the world to drop Pence from the ticket and replace him with Nikki Haley, Tulsi Gabbard or whoever he wants to be his shadow. Why should Pence's fate be any different than that of James Mattis ("the world's most overrated general"), Rex Tillerson ("dumb as a rock") or John Kelly ("over his head")?
I understand those who object to Trump putting Pence in charge. But I believe they are missing the bigger picture. Given the inherently uncertain and volatile nature of the Coronavirus it is clear to me that Trump is setting Pence up for failure.
Tuesday, February 25, 2020
A Disapoointing Democratic Debate in South Carolina
I found tonight's Democratic Debate in South Carolina to be disappointing on several levels.
For starters I was supposed to attend a debate watch party at City College in Harlem. But security officials at City College told me the address on my ticket didn't exist. Perhaps if it were a nicer night I would have explored Harlem but walking on a rainy night is not what I had in mind.
So I ended up watching the debate (well, the last hour or so) at home on my iPad. While I am grateful for the miracle of modern technology I am disappointed that I didn't get a sense of how a predominantly African-American and Latino audience would have responded to the candidates. Absent that here are my impressions such as they are:
Michael Bloomberg - This guy can't debate worth a lick. The fact that he said Chinese President Xi Jinping had to listen to the Politburo as if it wasn't an entity of the Communist Party. I mean even Bernie Sanders recognizes the Chinese government is authoritarian.
Pete Buttigieg - It seemed like Norah O'Donnell and Gayle King wouldn't let him get a word in edgewise and kept talking over him. Is it their way of telling Democratic voters Buttigieg isn't to be taken seriously?
Elizabeth Warren - On the other hand, O'Donnell & King had endless patience for Warren who has turned in single digit performances and let practically filibuster the debate. But giving Warren all this oxygen could be worth it if it cuts into Bernie's support.
Bernie Sanders - There are two ways to get under Bernie's skin. A) Remind him he's a millionaire. B) Goad him into defending authoritarian regimes like Cuba and the Sandinistas in Nicaragua. This really stirs his passion. He ended up exclaiming "Excuse me!!!" enough times that he sounded like Trump. Defending Fidel Castro never mind the Maduro regime in Venezuela might go over Big with Democrats, but it won't help him against Trump for all of Trump's support of authoritarian regimes.
Joe Biden - The former VP is not very articulate, but he picked his spots such as when he pledged to appoint a black woman to the Supreme Court. He also won over his audience by not going over his allotted time and being generally affable with good humor. I don't think that will help him against Trump, but right now he needs to win South Carolina and this might do it for him.
Amy Klobuchar - She peaked in New Hampshire and is now living on borrowed time. Klobuchar might be on her way out by this time a week from now.
Tom Steyer - Of the two billionaires on stage, Steyer was far more compelling even though he had far less speaking time. He made a forceful defense of his support for President Trump's impeachment and reparations and connected with the debate audience in a way Bloomberg couldn't. But neither impeachment nor reparations will ever come to pass.
I would be remiss if I didn't mention Israel. Major Garrett asked Sanders if he would move the U.S. Embassy back to Tel Aviv. Bernie said he would consider it. I was disturbed by the applause Sanders got when he called Benjamin Netanyahu a racist. With this reaction in mind while Bloomberg said he would leave the Embassy in Jerusalem he downplayed his support for Israel. For her part, Warren wouldn't answer the question saying it was up to the parties. Well, where we place our embassies is up to us. Warren's reply was an utter copout.
With Buttigieg likely to fade I am more and more resigned not only to Trump's re-election but not looking forward to seeing his opponent prevail either. Tomorrow night's convening of The Lousy Bowlers Club cannot come soon enough.
For starters I was supposed to attend a debate watch party at City College in Harlem. But security officials at City College told me the address on my ticket didn't exist. Perhaps if it were a nicer night I would have explored Harlem but walking on a rainy night is not what I had in mind.
So I ended up watching the debate (well, the last hour or so) at home on my iPad. While I am grateful for the miracle of modern technology I am disappointed that I didn't get a sense of how a predominantly African-American and Latino audience would have responded to the candidates. Absent that here are my impressions such as they are:
Michael Bloomberg - This guy can't debate worth a lick. The fact that he said Chinese President Xi Jinping had to listen to the Politburo as if it wasn't an entity of the Communist Party. I mean even Bernie Sanders recognizes the Chinese government is authoritarian.
Pete Buttigieg - It seemed like Norah O'Donnell and Gayle King wouldn't let him get a word in edgewise and kept talking over him. Is it their way of telling Democratic voters Buttigieg isn't to be taken seriously?
Elizabeth Warren - On the other hand, O'Donnell & King had endless patience for Warren who has turned in single digit performances and let practically filibuster the debate. But giving Warren all this oxygen could be worth it if it cuts into Bernie's support.
Bernie Sanders - There are two ways to get under Bernie's skin. A) Remind him he's a millionaire. B) Goad him into defending authoritarian regimes like Cuba and the Sandinistas in Nicaragua. This really stirs his passion. He ended up exclaiming "Excuse me!!!" enough times that he sounded like Trump. Defending Fidel Castro never mind the Maduro regime in Venezuela might go over Big with Democrats, but it won't help him against Trump for all of Trump's support of authoritarian regimes.
Joe Biden - The former VP is not very articulate, but he picked his spots such as when he pledged to appoint a black woman to the Supreme Court. He also won over his audience by not going over his allotted time and being generally affable with good humor. I don't think that will help him against Trump, but right now he needs to win South Carolina and this might do it for him.
Amy Klobuchar - She peaked in New Hampshire and is now living on borrowed time. Klobuchar might be on her way out by this time a week from now.
Tom Steyer - Of the two billionaires on stage, Steyer was far more compelling even though he had far less speaking time. He made a forceful defense of his support for President Trump's impeachment and reparations and connected with the debate audience in a way Bloomberg couldn't. But neither impeachment nor reparations will ever come to pass.
I would be remiss if I didn't mention Israel. Major Garrett asked Sanders if he would move the U.S. Embassy back to Tel Aviv. Bernie said he would consider it. I was disturbed by the applause Sanders got when he called Benjamin Netanyahu a racist. With this reaction in mind while Bloomberg said he would leave the Embassy in Jerusalem he downplayed his support for Israel. For her part, Warren wouldn't answer the question saying it was up to the parties. Well, where we place our embassies is up to us. Warren's reply was an utter copout.
With Buttigieg likely to fade I am more and more resigned not only to Trump's re-election but not looking forward to seeing his opponent prevail either. Tomorrow night's convening of The Lousy Bowlers Club cannot come soon enough.
A Steyer Surge in South Carolina?
According to a CBS News poll, Joe Biden leads Bernie Sanders by five points (28% to 23%) among Democrats in South Carolina.
But that isn't the big news.
Polling a close third is billionaire Tom Steyer at 18%. This would be the same Steyer who didn't even make the debate stage in Las Vegas last week.
In a state with a significant African-American population one must wonder if Steyer's vocal support for reparations is resonating.
New York Magazine thinks Steyer will be a one hit wonder in the Palmetto state. But if Steyer does well in South Carolina it could halt Michael Bloomberg's Super Tuesday plans whilst at the same time giving Bernie Sanders (and Elizabeth Warren) another billionaire punching bag. However, Steyer doesn't have any NDAs with former female employees nor does he have to defend "stop and frisk". So Steyer might be in a better position to defend himself against attacks from the Left. Of course, he'll have to contend with Biden because he's cutting into the African-American vote and Buttigieg/Klobuchar if they don't kill each other first.
For much of the campaign, many (myself included) have wondered why Steyer was even on the debate stage. Well, South Carolina voters may gave us their answer on Saturday night.
But that isn't the big news.
Polling a close third is billionaire Tom Steyer at 18%. This would be the same Steyer who didn't even make the debate stage in Las Vegas last week.
In a state with a significant African-American population one must wonder if Steyer's vocal support for reparations is resonating.
New York Magazine thinks Steyer will be a one hit wonder in the Palmetto state. But if Steyer does well in South Carolina it could halt Michael Bloomberg's Super Tuesday plans whilst at the same time giving Bernie Sanders (and Elizabeth Warren) another billionaire punching bag. However, Steyer doesn't have any NDAs with former female employees nor does he have to defend "stop and frisk". So Steyer might be in a better position to defend himself against attacks from the Left. Of course, he'll have to contend with Biden because he's cutting into the African-American vote and Buttigieg/Klobuchar if they don't kill each other first.
For much of the campaign, many (myself included) have wondered why Steyer was even on the debate stage. Well, South Carolina voters may gave us their answer on Saturday night.
Saturday, February 22, 2020
Bernie Declared Winner of Nevada Caucus - UPDATE
With only 4% of ballots in Bernie Sanders has been declared the winner of the Nevada Democratic Caucus. Sanders has earned 54.2% of the vote and has a 3:1 margin lead over Joe Biden at 18%. Elizabeth Warren is in third at 10% (possibly on the strength of her debate performance on Wednesday) with Pete Buttigieg in fourth at 8.7% followed by billionaire Tom Steyer at 6.4%. Amy Klobuchar was a complete non-factor in the race.
This is Bernie's biggest win to date after narrowly losing to Buttigieg in Iowa and narrowly edging Buttigieg in New Hampshire. One week from tonight voters in South Carolina will weigh in. If Bernie wins in the Palmetto state he could clinch the nomination by Super Tuesday. But as we all know a week in politics is a lifetime.
In light of the decisiveness of Bernie's win, it will be interesting to see if he becomes the focal point of Tuesday night's debate in Charleston. With the exception of Buttigieg, the focus of the other candidates in last week's debate in Las Vegas was on Michael Bloomberg. In previous debates, the focus has been Buttigieg. Bernie has won New Hampshire and Nevada and narrowly missed winning Iowa. If he isn't the focus of Tuesday night's debate then this tells me the other candidates have thrown in the towel.
UPDATE: With 43% of the vote, Sanders still has a decisive lead over Biden (46.8% to 20.7%), but Buttigieg has leapt into third (15.1%) with Warren & Klobuchar in single digits, respectively (9.5% & 4%).
In light of the decisiveness of Bernie's win, it will be interesting to see if he becomes the focal point of Tuesday night's debate in Charleston. With the exception of Buttigieg, the focus of the other candidates in last week's debate in Las Vegas was on Michael Bloomberg. In previous debates, the focus has been Buttigieg. Bernie has won New Hampshire and Nevada and narrowly missed winning Iowa. If he isn't the focus of Tuesday night's debate then this tells me the other candidates have thrown in the towel.
UPDATE: With 43% of the vote, Sanders still has a decisive lead over Biden (46.8% to 20.7%), but Buttigieg has leapt into third (15.1%) with Warren & Klobuchar in single digits, respectively (9.5% & 4%).
Thursday, February 20, 2020
Thoughts on The #MeToo Mob at West Side Story
As I walked home this evening I noticed a large gathering of protesters outside the Broadway Theater. Tonight marks the long awaited opening night of the revival of West Side Story.
A group of predominantly female #MeToo protesters were chanting, "Be Better Broadway!!! Hold men accountable!!!" To be specific, the protesters are demanding the firing of lead actor Amar Ramasar because he sent & received explicit photographs of two women - a former girlfriend and his current girlfriend. The protests have been going on for several weeks and will likely continue until they get their pound of flesh although for now the producers are standing firm with Ramasar.
According to The New York Times, some of the protesters believe Ramasar committed sexual assault. He did no such thing. As for the explicit images of the women, he did not share them online for the world to see. Ramasar broke no law. Nothing he did rises to the level of hysteria. What we have here is a #MeToo mob engaged in demagoguery and defamation. As Americans, they have the right to protest. But they doth protest too much. Their protest trivializes the trauma of those who have endured rape and sexual assault. If they had an ounce of decency they would get off the stage and let the show go on.
A group of predominantly female #MeToo protesters were chanting, "Be Better Broadway!!! Hold men accountable!!!" To be specific, the protesters are demanding the firing of lead actor Amar Ramasar because he sent & received explicit photographs of two women - a former girlfriend and his current girlfriend. The protests have been going on for several weeks and will likely continue until they get their pound of flesh although for now the producers are standing firm with Ramasar.
According to The New York Times, some of the protesters believe Ramasar committed sexual assault. He did no such thing. As for the explicit images of the women, he did not share them online for the world to see. Ramasar broke no law. Nothing he did rises to the level of hysteria. What we have here is a #MeToo mob engaged in demagoguery and defamation. As Americans, they have the right to protest. But they doth protest too much. Their protest trivializes the trauma of those who have endured rape and sexual assault. If they had an ounce of decency they would get off the stage and let the show go on.
Why I Went Bowling Instead of Watching Last Night's Democratic Debate in Vegas
I have spent a great deal of time going out to various venues to watch the Democratic Party presidential debates and caucus/primary results. But I opted to skip last night's debate to go bowling.
One of my goals for this year was to join a bowling league and for the past six weeks I have Wednesday evenings at Bowlero Queens to bowl in the Lousy Bowlers Club.
I'm still lousy, but am improving. Prior to beginning the league, my average was just under 70. Now it's around 88 and I roll better than 100 on a more frequent basis. Although I roll spares and strikes more often, I still get into a rut where I will roll several gutter balls in a row and I make my displeasure known. I'm not happy when I do this or when I don't roll as well as other people.
But getting better is something for which I can strive. And when you join a league you can bowl quite inexpensively. This a good thing because New York and inexpensive seldom appear in the same sentence.
I'm also gradually getting to know people.
When it comes to bowling there is fertile ground for to explore.
When it comes to politics it is the same old ground even if there are new players.
By all accounts, I missed a barnburner of a debate and things did not fare so well for Bloomberg as I suspected they wouldn't.
Don't get me wrong. Affairs of state are important and I will pay attention and make comment when I see fit. But chances are very little good is going to come of it. More likely than not Donald Trump is going to be re-elected. In the unlikely event Trump loses he will lose to a candidate I don't like either (i.e. Bernie Sanders). Even if Pete Buttigieg manages to win the damn things it's not like the world will break out into song and teenaged boys will be cured of acne. Things are likely to get worse before they get better, if they get better.
Let me put it another way. When I told one of my colleagues that I went bowling instead of watching the debate, he replied, "You chose wisely."
With that, I will be going another watch party next Tuesday when Democrats debate in South Carolina. Whether this is a wise choice remains to be seen.
One of my goals for this year was to join a bowling league and for the past six weeks I have Wednesday evenings at Bowlero Queens to bowl in the Lousy Bowlers Club.
I'm still lousy, but am improving. Prior to beginning the league, my average was just under 70. Now it's around 88 and I roll better than 100 on a more frequent basis. Although I roll spares and strikes more often, I still get into a rut where I will roll several gutter balls in a row and I make my displeasure known. I'm not happy when I do this or when I don't roll as well as other people.
But getting better is something for which I can strive. And when you join a league you can bowl quite inexpensively. This a good thing because New York and inexpensive seldom appear in the same sentence.
I'm also gradually getting to know people.
When it comes to bowling there is fertile ground for to explore.
When it comes to politics it is the same old ground even if there are new players.
By all accounts, I missed a barnburner of a debate and things did not fare so well for Bloomberg as I suspected they wouldn't.
Don't get me wrong. Affairs of state are important and I will pay attention and make comment when I see fit. But chances are very little good is going to come of it. More likely than not Donald Trump is going to be re-elected. In the unlikely event Trump loses he will lose to a candidate I don't like either (i.e. Bernie Sanders). Even if Pete Buttigieg manages to win the damn things it's not like the world will break out into song and teenaged boys will be cured of acne. Things are likely to get worse before they get better, if they get better.
Let me put it another way. When I told one of my colleagues that I went bowling instead of watching the debate, he replied, "You chose wisely."
With that, I will be going another watch party next Tuesday when Democrats debate in South Carolina. Whether this is a wise choice remains to be seen.
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