The Bloomberg Factor in Tonight's Democratic Debate

Tonight's Democratic debate in Las Vegas three days ahead of the Nevada Caucus will undoubtedly draw eyeballs with the debut of former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg on the stage.


And why not? This could very well be the night that determines who wins the Democratic Party nomination.


If Bloomberg performs spectacularly it could cut into the support of Pete Buttigieg and the surging Amy Klobuchar while keeping Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden as also rans. Now Bloomberg is not entered into the Nevada caucus which does make his presence on stage a curiosity. But a strong debate performance could spur caucus voters to pledge their support on Saturday night which could make Iowa look orderly by comparison.


A spectacular performance by Bloomberg could turn the race into a showdown between him and Bernie Sanders. If it comes down to Bernie and Bloomberg, I have to pick Bernie. While Bloomberg's money his launched him onto the debate stage and up in the polls, as I have previously argued there remains a critical mass of Democrats who do not believe billionaires should exist. So long as that is the case then Bloomberg won't win the party's nomination even if he has a breakout night on the debate stage tonight.


Of course, tonight's debate could all blow up in Bloomberg's face. If he can't think on his feet then all the millions he has spent on TV, radio and online advertising will have been for naught. Bernie could lay the smack down on Bloomberg. If this is the case then Buttigieg or Klobuchar could establish themselves as the moderate alternative if they don't do it on their own, particularly Buttigieg. If the former mayor of a city of 100,000 can get the better of the former mayor of America's largest city then Bloomberg's campaign could go the way of current New York Mayor Bill de Blasio. Yes, it's easy to forget that Bloomberg isn't the first New York mayor to seek the 2020 Democratic nomination.


While it could also be an opportunity for Biden or Warren to reclaim lost ground at Bloomberg's expense, Buttigieg and Klobuchar would be the big beneficiaries because the focus wouldn't be on Buttigieg and Klobuchar can escape scrutiny for one more night. Of course, this might not stop Klobuchar from taking another swipe at Buttigieg. In which case, if Klobuchar touts her experience while patronizing Pete then he might want to point out that Klobuchar has a lot of experience in throwing things at people. But whatever sparks might take place between Buttigieg and Klobuchar, the focus at least for tonight will be squarely on Bloomberg.